If Twitter following carried the same weight as support at the ballot box, Julius Malema would be president, Helen Zille would still be leader of the DA and President Cyril Ramaphosa would be warming the National Assembly's backbenches.
Malema's 2.05 million followers make him the most influential politician in the Twittersphere by a significant margin, and Zille's 1.33 million leave her successor, Mmusi Maimane (957,000), and the DA itself (503,000) eating her dust. As for Ramaphosa, he can't even muster as many fans as Steve Hofmeyr.
The superficial popularity of Malema is one of the factors behind the widespread perception that Ramaphosa has been working too hard to curry favour with the EFF leader, possibly with an eye to coalitions after next year's elections.Zille's strong personal support base fuels the impression that she still calls the shots in the DA even though Maimane recently celebrated his third anniversary as party leader. Much as Ramaphosa and Maimane may protest, they know that once such perceptions take root, they are difficult to dispel.
That doesn't mean they should be left to flourish, however, and Maimane signals in an interview with the Sunday Times today that with the ANC recovering credibility and the DA appearing to be on the back foot — and simultaneously shooting itself in the foot, especially in its agonising contortions aimed at ousting Cape Town mayor Patricia de Lille — he is ready to assert his leadership more forcefully.
His new narrative includes an outspoken determination to put distance between himself and Zille. "I don't share Helen Zille's views on colonialism or whatever the case might be," he says.
"When these matters arose, I had opportunity to call her up and say: 'Listen, this is unacceptable. This is not going to happen.' What happens in public does not take cognisance of what happens in the background. In the background I had to be deliberate and intentional about saying this is how this is going to work."He also made clear that after next year's election, Zille will be nothing more than an ordinary DA member.
The risk inherent in Maimane's move is obvious — Zille has a devoted fan base who react vituperatively to even the vaguest criticism of their heroine - but it shows that after 1,000 days as party leader, and having just been returned unchallenged to the job, Maimane is ready to stand up to some of the individuals who are perceived as undermining him.
If he is wise and courageous, they should include federal chairman Athol Trollip, federal council chairman James Selfe and his deputy Natasha Mazzone, and chief whip John Steenhuisen.
Any perception that a leader is a puppet is fatal to his credibility, and with at most a year until the elections, Maimane will be well-advised to step away from the shadows that surround him.
He has a good story to tell, after all — DA administrations recently achieved good audit reports, especially compared to the generally dismal performance of the ANC, and they outperform the governing party on many other metrics. And he cannot be blind to what one commentator excitedly described this week as "the media's extraordinary propaganda offensive against the party".
After campaigning so long and hard for the downfall of Jacob Zuma, the impression is growing that the DA didn't believe it would win, so didn't plan for victory. Ramaphosa has to do little more than breathe and grin to outperform his predecessor, while the DA has to fundamentally change its strategy if it is to maintain the momentum Zuma generously gave it.In parliament recently, Maimane said the ANC had "no credible plan for tomorrow". That may have been the case until just over 100 days ago.
These days, it's beginning to look as though the DA has fallen into the same trap. Maimane's rediscovery of his cojones may be exactly what the party needs...