I suspect very few people know how much trouble South Africa is in. It's not that we're approaching a racial civil war. I think South Africans are far too sensible for that. They don't want their country destroyed. They want a stake in something with a future.
But there must be a small group of people, concentrated probably in the National Treasury, who look at our debt and wonder how on earth they are going to get it under control, or at least hide the truth long enough for someone to answer the question.
South Africa's public finances are in a dreadful state. Does anyone really think Eskom, which started its pay talks this year by offering employees a 0% increase, can possibly survive in its current form now that it is offering well over 7% to unions who keep pushing because they can sniff management's fear? The same goes for most state-owned companies. And the Reserve Bank has just cut its growth forecast for the year from 1.7% to 1.2% - or by nearly 30%.
At Eskom, and in the Union Buildings and ANC headquarters at Luthuli House, the fear is load-shedding ahead of an election next year. There is something vulgar about electric lights going out. It happens to every one of us at the same time. It is an undeniable admission of the failure of a state, and Eskom's unions can make it happen in a matter of hours if they choose.
Out in the streets, the fear is even darker. "South Africa is on the cusp of something terrible," writes Gareth van Onselen, a man I respect. "All the signs are there." Trevor Manuel complains that the "debate" on land expropriation is making it hard to sell South Africa as an investment destination. Did anyone expect otherwise?
The fact is that there is so much wrong with our country, it is hard to see a way through. To find reasons to be cheerful. Former US president Barack Obama was a brief ray of sunshine when he spoke at Madiba's centenary celebration. For a moment you could close your eyes and all would be well.
But it won't. Not yet. President Cyril Ramaphosa spends his time moving from one impossible position to another. He has to have the land debate and he has to energise his investment drive. He has to have useless and corrupt Zupta ministers in his cabinet and stand up against corruption at the same time.For Ramaphosa, for now, survival is everything. I doubt he hears the rage about Shaun Abrahams still being in charge of the NPA, or the way his "weakness" is constantly spat upon. He is simply waiting for next year's election, which, in the absence of huge events, he will probably win with a solid majority. Then, he believes, he can move. Perhaps.
But every day is a new challenge and, apologies to Robert Frost, there are miles to go before he sleeps. Friends and allies say he doesn't communicate and that his private office is a mess, and his advisers weak.
This weekend it will have been about ANC provincial elections in KwaZulu-Natal. Does Ramaphosa's slate win?
The ANC in the province has been divided from the day our democracy was born. Even at the height of his powers, former president Jacob Zuma took years to hold a KwaZulu-Natal elective conference that gave him the result he wanted. Then his chosen leadership failed to deliver the province entirely to his chosen successor, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, last December.
Ramaphosa may be floating like a cork in a stormy sea but the important thing is he's still floating. There isn't a political leader anywhere on our horizon better suited to the job that needs doing now in South Africa.
I know the abuse that remarks like that invite, but keeping the right people at the Treasury is just critical. We have debts, huge and getting bigger by the day, to pay. One slip in the debt markets, one late payment, and we're gone. We get bailed out and do what we're told. It's that close.
Nonetheless, a near miss would still be a miss.
If - when - Ramaphosa wins his own mandate next year, he'll have room to do a few simple things that might inoculate us from further harm. Taking back control of the NPA would be one. By then the revenue service will have begun to recover its poise. And, given time to think and talk, there is a rational way to redistribute land.
I still have hope. We're still standing and we're still talking. It matters. Sure, South Africa is scary. It has been for centuries. And while I know it's safer to be cynical about our future, the fact is that we're better than we were before and that's something to treasure and make perfect...