Zimbabwe on a knife-edge over crucial election

"Waiting for after the elections" has become a common refrain in Harare's streets, boardrooms and business circles.

22 July 2018 - 00:00 By RAY NDLOVU

At an upmarket car dealership in Harare's high-end shopping mall, brand new Mercedes-Benz GL models line the showroom floor.
The price tag on these vehicles is €130000 (about R2-million). The salesman explains that the euro price tag "is for the simple reason that our cars are imported straight from Germany".
His explanation for lacklustre vehicle sales over the past few months is more believable. "Clients are waiting for after the elections," he says.
The flat market mirrors the national mood. "Waiting for after the elections" has become a common refrain in Harare's streets, boardrooms and business circles. It reflects the growing uncertainty and anxiety gripping the country ahead of the July 30 poll.
A range of key business decisions have deliberately been put on hold until after the elections - yet again an indication of how politics in Zimbabwe often takes a leading role ahead of the economy.Robert Besseling, director of Exx-Africa, a business intelligence firm, identifies the elections and the clearance of $10-billion (R130-billion) in debt as the twin challenges to be met before Zimbabwe can attract any meaningful investment.
"Many investors and international partners are maintaining a wait-and-see approach until after the elections ... Once the elections have passed, assuming these are broadly recognised as free and fair, foreign investment will be quick to flow into Zimbabwe," he says.
The cautious approach is understandable. Zimbabwe has a history of disputed polls. A particular blight on the country's recent history is the 2008 presidential poll, when the release of results was delayed by a month and the military led a violent campaign tagged "Operation Mavotera Papi" (Where did you vote?) in the rural areas.This year's contest will begin its final lap this week.
Although the run-up to the elections has not been characterised by violence and intimidation - a strong feature of previous polls - there are indications of rising tension.
Many questions linger. These include whether the military will step in and impose its own preferred leader against the majority vote, and whether President Emmerson Mnangagwa will cede power, or the opposition gracefully accept defeat.
All eyes will also be on the election observers from various observer missions, in the hope that they will give the elections the seal of approval and pass them as free and fair. A run-off date for the poll, should a second round of voting become necessary, is set for September 8.
On voting day next Monday, voters will choose among 23 presidential hopefuls, all first-time contestants. Familiar names such as Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai will be absent from the ballot paper.
Nelson Chamisa, the 40-year-old leader of the MDC Alliance, fancies his chances. Yet he has in the past two weeks of campaigning also been most vocal about the uneven political playing field - raising red flags over the voter's roll, ballot papers and the independence of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission.Peace and security researcher Gwinyayi Dzinesa says past experiences "of losing elections have provided lessons for the MDC and explained its current vociferousness".
As tensions rise, the Southern African Development Community and the AU are likely to be approached to act as arbiters if the poll outcome is disputed.
A dispute and haggling for power by the political players would sink the country deeper into limbo, unnerving potential foreign investors and extending the economic pain suffered by ordinary citizens and businesses.
In a final push to woo voters, various political parties will hold star rallies. Zanu-PF and the MDC Alliance are set to hold their final rallies in Harare on Friday and Saturday.
The election season may be winding up, but the tall order of infusing confidence in citizens accustomed to uncertainty still lies ahead.
This will not be an easy feat for the new leader voted in at the end of the month...

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