Split will be the end of the ANC as we know it
A split in the ANC, which is inevitable, will either lead to the total demise of the currently all-powerful governing party or at least result in a substantially reduced party that will be unlikely to be able to govern SA without being in a coalition.
In the post-World War 2 period, most African liberation movements that dominated their countries slid back because of corruption, incompetence and irrelevance. They lost power, in most cases never to return to power again. Some split into ever smaller groupings until they disappeared into oblivion, to become only a footnote in history. In other cases they won power, but only through coalitions, and never with absolute majorities again...