A set of local results that may just have shown us our national future

The DA will never lead SA at national level, but Herman Mashaba might

07 November 2021 - 00:00

For goodness’ sake, whatever you do, on pain of, well, pain, don’t compare the results in this local government election with the last general election, in 2019. Compare them with the previous municipal poll in 2016. That way the performance of the DA last Monday looks much worse. It did 26.9% in 2016 and 21.8% on Monday. What a catastrophe.

I can’t do that. First, Jacob Zuma was a huge factor in 2016 and that must have amplified the DA vote back then. He wasn’t much of a factor last week. What you have to look for is how the DA normally performs in local and national elections, and analysts reckon the difference is about four percentage points, in favour, obviously, of a local vote. So the DA’s 21.8% does represent a knock but only a five-percentage-point knock. I was expecting much worse. ..

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