Soccer

Where has all the excitement gone? Predictable football is killing football

11 November 2018 - 00:00 By espn.com

Unpredictability was always trumpeted as the English Premier League's selling point. The ability of the bottom club to beat the leaders, and the sense that every game carried the risk of defeat or embarrassment even for the biggest teams, was viewed as a reason to tune in every weekend.
The prospect of seeing Alex Ferguson's Manchester United lose to Bolton Wanderers, Liverpool dropping points at home to Blackpool or Manchester City failing to beat the likes of Burnley is one of the reasons why the Premier League became the richest league in world football.
But the unpredictability that took the Premier League above and beyond Spain's La Liga, the German Bundesliga and Italian Serie A in terms of entertainment and global popularity has gone.
While the Spanish and German leagues are enjoying a rare taste of unpredictability due to the travails of Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, the Premier League's big guns are pulling further and further away. It's getting so absurd this season that the title contenders rarely even come close to losing against teams outside the top half.
Rafael Benitez was criticised for setting up his Newcastle side with 11 men behind the ball when they played City - and lost 1-0 - at St James' Park last season, but other clubs have paid such a heavy price for being open against the top teams, conceding five, six or even seven goals, that it is no surprise that some have now seemingly abandoned hope in those games.
When so many teams approach games against the likes of City and Liverpool fearing the worst, what chance do they have of getting anything other than a heavy defeat? And what does this do to the weekly watchability of the Premier League?
Since 2016 the top six have been a closed shop with the "big six" pulling up the drawbridge. Their accumulated wealth, generated by Champions League income, Premier League prize money or benevolent owners, has sent them over the horizon.
The gulf has become massive and coaches further down the league are now driven by damage-limitation rather than adventure. Everton finished seventh in 2016-17, eight points adrift of sixth-placed United, while Burnley landed seventh last season - nine points behind Arsenal, sixth.
This season doesn't look like it will be different. Bournemouth sit in sixth but Saturday's defeat to United moved Mourinho's team level on points.
If the imbalance continues, crowds will drop as supporters pick and choose games and the huge sums received from broadcasting deals could be at risk if the spectacle is bland and predictable. It's much better to watch the Bundesliga or La Liga if you want unpredictability this season. And that is worrying for the Premier League...

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