Ode to an Arab Spring and winter in the markets

31 December 2011 - 02:19 By CRAIG PHEIFFER
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(With apologies to Clement Clarke Moore)

'Twas the week before new year and investors were weary

From a year of high drama that left quite a few teary.

Politicians were ousted like they were last week's polony

With Italy booting out their three-term Berlusconi.

The Portuguese PM proposed a tightening of the belt,

But it forced his resignation 'cos that's not how parliament felt.

Papandreou managed to scrape by until his career finally stalled

And the nail in his coffin was the referendum that he called.

The advent of the Arab Spring saw dictators out of luck,

And it cut short all the tyranny from Gadaffi and Mubarak.

Bin Laden's reign of terror was brought to an end by Seal team six,

But by not advising Pakistan, they found themselves in a fix.

Mother Nature also had her say as the floods broke through the gates

And Japan lost 10000 lives in a shift of the tectonic plates.

The fallout from Daiichi created panic and widespread fear,

And Germany and others revised their plans for nuclear.

We agonised over global growth and the dreaded double dip,

And we wondered where in Europe that bond prices next might slip.

Sovereign debt was in the spotlight and we hoped at each new summit,

But disappointments were aplenty and the "risk off" made shares plummet.

EU leaders weren't together and seemed to meet and meet and meet,

And the disgruntled 99% went on to Occupy Wall Street.

US debt hit its ceiling limit and got the agencies all salivating,

And it wasn't long thereafter that there was a downgrade in their rating.

Slowing growth was universal in countries developed and emerging,

And households kept our growth afloat even though they weren't quite splurging.

Global markets defined our local trends and often pushed us into the red,

And the rush to risk aversion threw our currency out of bed.

Although the index was largely flat, each share told a different story,

With gold doing well across the board, but with construction rather gory.

The performance of the platinum stocks was another sorry tale,

But you made that back and then some if you were anywhere in retail.

You paid more in your taxes if beer and ciggies were your vice,

But if you stuck them in your portfolio, your returns were rather nice.

Oil was good, iron ore too, and coal shot out the lights,

But gambling and hospitality would have given you sleepless nights.

With interest rates at decade lows, returns were pretty grim

And the pickings on your property stocks this year were rather slim.

Preference shares and the bond market gave you single digits back,

And the yields in the money market helped to keep you in the black.

Outside of the markets, events had a bearing on our nation,

And we saw a breaching of the target with November price inflation.

COP17 decided on just another two degrees of heating,

And Australia and that Lawrence chap gave our Boks a beating.

The UK had its hands full with youthful TV-stealing mobs,

And the world lost an icon with the passing of Steve Jobs.

Charlie Sheen kept on "winning" and Lindsay Lohan lived in court

And the money that she earned from Hef helped a family to support.

The Dalai Lama got no visa to join the party with our Arch,

And we failed 400 rhinos as the poachers stole a march.

But the wedding of the royals made a lot more people chipper,

With the highlight of the service being the dress draped over Pippa.

Now a crowbar was much needed to force some endings in this rhyme,

So I'll leave the last to Clement Moore, whose poetry's more sublime:

"But I heard him exclaim, ere he drove out of sight,

Happy New Year to all, and to all a good night.''

  • Pheiffer is the general manager of investments at Absa Investments
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