You have to ask which commodity is likely to rocket

Yes, we all know never to assume past performance has any bearing on future returns, but still - the latest Morningstar unit trust rankings make for irresistible speculation.

The research measures the top and bottom 25 retail portfolios over 12 months to the end of January. It also offers a tantalising comparison to the full 2011 calendar year, which reveals clearly which sectors contributed most heavily to the new year rally.

The winning fund, coming from a position of 62 a month earlier, was Nedgroup's entrepreneur fund. And in fourth position (from 80 a month earlier) was Momentum's small- and mid-cap fund. So an obvious swing in short-term investor sentiment towards more non-blue-chip companies. Very nice to see; let's hope it continues.

But the most massive change in fortune during January was recorded by the listed property sector. In the year to December not one real estate fund was in the top 25 retail portfolios. In the year to January, no fewer than nine made it - an extraordinary reflection, perhaps, of the latest trend among smaller investors towards yield-hunting.

The third notable statistic worth highlighting from the research was the remarkable performance of two asset managers: Stanlib's global bond fund of funds and RE:CM's global asset-allocation fund of funds - the only portfolios that managed to remain in the top 25 rankings after the January shake-out.

Another reminder to self: don't read too much into the past. But, but ... you can be utterly certain that many other investors will not have the same compunction and are bound to chase the winners. This suggests that, in the short term at least, property and small-caps could well turn out to be the hottest sectors.

At the bottom of the pile, in 645th position over 12 months, was Sanlam's Asia Pacific equity fund of funds, which received only the slightest fillip from buyers in January. It lost nearly 10% in the past 12 months. Perversely, this rotten performance is probably the best "buy" signal you could hope to receive.

Also right near the bottom were the heavyweight mining and resources funds run by Old Mutual, Coronation and Stanlib. If you have any faith whatsoever in the ability of China to drag the world out of recession, the miners must surely be screaming buys.

And of them, the most unloved stocks are the platinum miners. The spot metal's rand price is just about flat over 12 months, compared to a 40% rise in gold (based on Standard Bank's exchange-traded note prices). You have to ask which commodity is most likely to rocket next.