'Patronage to keep Mugabe in power'

Any political party that wrestles power from Zanu-PF will meet a challenge - the bourgeoisie class made up of military commanders and their allies, which is already in charge of Zimbabwe's economy.

This is a scenario hinted at in research by the Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe entitled "The Military Factor in Zimbabwe's Political and Electoral Affairs".

The civic organisation says all the key positions in government-run entities have been reserved and allocated to those on President Robert Mugabe's side as a way of maintaining patronage of the state's economic affairs.

"Through an elaborate patronage system established to reward partisan senior military officials and keep them loyal to Zanu-PF and to President Mugabe, the military has unceasingly played a central and critical role in directing production and controlling ownership of the means of production," it says.

"The military has become a significant part of the domestic bourgeoisie class and many top commanders have teamed up with politicians and businessmen to form political and economic interest groups venturing into lucrative businesses such as platinum and gold mining."

According to Crisis Coalition, this web will have a big role to play in the elections because it has interests to defend. The report traces several retired army chiefs who have been appointed to key positions since Mugabe's popularity started waning. For example, retired Major General Jevan Maseko is at the embassy in Cuba, while Brigadier General Elisha Muzonzini was posted to Kenya.

"Mugabe placed national food distribution and various agriculture programmes directly under the army through the control of the Grain Marketing Board sales since 2002."

Crisis Coalition also suspects that the revenue from diamonds in Marange will be used to fund a terror campaign come election time.