SA growth could be fuelled by a 'big push into Africa'

30 August 2015 - 02:02 By ASHA SPECKMAN

The market frenzy of the past week, in which trillions of dollars were wiped off practically every asset class, have cast gloom over the economic prospects of the emerging world, with South Africa not escaping the disapproving glare of global investors. But it's a script that the country, Africa's most developed, needn't follow.If local companies pursue opportunities in advanced manufacturing and infrastructure elsewhere on the continent, the economy is poised to grow by R1-trillion and create 3.4 million new jobs over the next 15 years, according to research to be released this week.Other sectors that could also yield big opportunities are natural gas, service exports and raw and processed agricultural exports.The catalyst for this is increased co-ordination between the private sector and the government in their expansion into the rest of the continent.story_article_left1Companies need to "be more risk-taking instead of staying in areas that are safe", said Christine Wu, a McKinsey partner and co-author of the report "South Africa's Big Five: Bold priorities for inclusive growth".She told Business Times: "It is also very important for South Africa to go into these African countries as SA Inc instead of individual, discrete players. When you look at examples like China, what you're seeing is construction firms very successfully bundling themselves with financial offerings."South Africa's exports of advanced manufacturing products such as machinery and motor vehicles were valued at more than R190-billion, or 44%, of manufactured exports two years ago. By 2030, that value could triple to more than R700-billion, according to the report.Manufacturing, which is struggling under the weight of high input costs and cheap Chinese imports, could double manufactured exports and lead to the creation of 1.5 million jobs in the broader economy through increased exports by 2030. This would boost GDP by R540-billion, the report says.block_quotes_start They are not just going to let their competitive advantage slip ... we cannot rule out the Chinese just yet block_quotes_endManufacturing as a share of GDP has almost halved from 1990 to 13% of GDP last year.Challenges linked to China's slowing economy could provide an opportunity for South Africa to muscle in on its turf on the continent, Wu said.Africa has been one of the world's biggest recipients of China's expansion.In infrastructure, South Africa's market share of foreign-built sub-Saharan Africa projects is 7% - compared with 32% for China.Slowing growth in China is, however, set to refocus the country's energies on its domestic economy. South Africa "already has a competitive advantage against some of the other international players for us to make a big inroad in growing even without competing directly with China", Wu said.However, according to Nedbank economist Isaac Matshego, trade between South Africa and its neighbours is already strong, and "there's not much more we can do".Extending this to other countries in the Southern African Development Community and beyond is complicated.story_article_right2"When you take South Africa and Nigeria, what we'd have to do is switch the source of our imports. For example, both countries import a lot from China. The question is, are there products which these two countries could compete on with Chinese goods in their markets? Those countries worry about their benefits from trade," Matshego said."Nigerians are not going to buy South African goods when they can get cheaper from China."Matshego said it was too early to read anything into the Chinese slowdown. "The Chinese are doing everything to remain competitive. They are not just going to let their competitive advantage slip ... we cannot rule out the Chinese just yet."The McKinsey report singles out the export of services such as banking, transport, telecoms and legal into the continent as an opportunity. The sector generates 62% of South Africa's GDP and has created 2.7 million jobs since 2004. De mand is rising in the rest of Africa.The big four South African banking groups - Standard Bank, FirstRand, Barclays Africa and Nedbank - have targeted rapid expansion into the rest of the continent, particularly since the slowdown in the local economy became evident.In agriculture, South Africa's existing export markets in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia hold a R145-billion opportunity. Increased exports would create more rural jobs, according to the McKinsey report.South Africa's growth since 2008 has lagged behind that of other emerging markets, and stalled at 1.5% last year.Domestically, opportunities for further growth also lie in infrastructure, where there are gaps in electricity supply and access to clean water and sanitation.story_article_left3Smarter infrastructure delivery could save South Africa up to R1.4-trillion over the next decade, boost annual GDP by R260-billion and create up to 660000 jobs, but only through public-private partnerships, according to McKinsey.The report says that by 2025 South Africa will face a power gap of 6gigawatts to 10GW as electricity demand increases and 14GW of ageing coal-power plants are decommissioned between 2020 and 2030.Natural gas-fired power generation could add R140-billion to GDP, and downstream opportunities in gas-based industries and the chemicals sector could add another R110-billion and create 230000 jobs. Shale gas resources - although yet to be proved in South Africa - could create an additional 40000 to 102000 jobs, the report says.The opportunity spans the range from construction, design and consulting to maintenance services, it says.speckmana@sundaytimes.co.za..

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