Coca-Cola: within AB InBev's grasp?

24 January 2016 - 02:00 By ANN CROTTY

Carlos Brito and his executive team at Anheuser-Busch InBev may appear to be extremely busy trying to ensure there are no insurmountable problems with their record-breaking $108-billion (R1.78-trillion) bid for SABMiller, but chances are they are already thinking about the next deal. Indeed, no sooner had AB InBev announced its bid for SABMiller than analysts were preparing reports on what the next deal might be - a $250-billion bid for Coca-Cola. A deal this size would be the biggest corporate transaction yet and one that would raise more competition concerns than the mega-beer deal. Some might reckon such a deal to be dauntingly big, but not the deal-making, cost-cutting team behind AB InBev.At the core of that group of deal junkies is Brazilian billionaire Jorge Lemann, who in 1999, with two partners, created Brazil-based beer giant AmBev by merging a number of smaller beer companies. In 2004, AmBev bought Belgian brewer Interbrew to create InBev. In the same year, Lemann and his colleagues established private-equity group 3G.story_article_left1In 2008, InBev, with the backing of 3G, acquired Anheuser-Busch for $52-billion in a deal that secured its position as the world's largest brewer. With control of Heineken and Carlsberg in unassailable hands, the acquisition of SABMiller looks set to be the last of the big-beer deals. Analysts believe the need to feed 3G/AB InBev's acquisition appetite will see it move on Coca-Cola within three to five years of the SABMiller transaction being finalised.Headlines have focused on its beer deals, but 3G's interest spreads further. In two critical non-beer deals 3G teamed up with US investment legend Warren Buffett to acquire Heinz in 2013 and, in 2015, merge it with Kraft.Buffett is a big supporter of 3G's cost-cutting style, and happens to control a 10% stake in Coca-Cola. This, and the fact Coca-Cola has become what one analyst described as "fat and inefficient", as well as the realisation there are no more beer companies to acquire, has led analysts to consider the carbonated-drinks company as the next likely target for the deal-hungry AB InBev/3G team.In a report released after AB InBev announced its offer for SABMiller, Bernstein Research said there were a number of reasons an AB InBev bid for Coca-Cola made sense: Coca-Cola is "somewhat inefficient"; Buffett, who is likely to be unhappy with that inefficiency, has praised 3G's management and cost-cutting style; 3G has described Coca-Cola as a prized asset with lots of opportunity; AB InBev is not only an efficient operator but, as the Pepsi anchor bottler in many Latin American countries, has knowledge of the soft-drinks industry.Taking control of the entire Coca-Cola operation would be one way of resolving concerns about the merged AB InBev/SABMiller being a significant bottler for both Pepsi and Coca-Cola.Currently, according to Bernstein Research, SABMiller notches up $1.5-billion in revenue and about $250-million profit from its Coca-Cola business in Africa.AbInbev said it didn't comment on speculation.story_article_right2But any ambitious plans to propel itself from a mega-beer to a mega-beverage business could create greater competition hurdles across the globe than the beer merger. This is particularly the case in Africa, where beer and Coca-Cola bottling is often done in the same facilities.Anyone who reckons a mega Coca-Cola acquisition would be straightforward needs to look at the difficulties SABMiller, the Gutsche family and Coca-Cola are facing as they attempt to restructure their businesses to create Africa's largest bottler of soft drinks. The deal, announced in 2014, will only be heard by the Competition Tribunal in May.The complex set of conditions attached to the Competition Commission's approval point to the possibility of a fractious hearing.Meanwhile, the latest results from SABMiller demonstrate both the attraction and frustration it presents for AB InBev shareholders. In the three months to end-December, South Africa achieved net revenue growth of 16% and Africa was up 18%. Latin America also had strong revenue growth. But this impressive performance was muted in dollar terms by the sharp depreciation in emerging currencies in the period.crottya@sundaytimes.co.za..

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