What a start it has been to 2016. Stock market volatility in China, downward global equity markets, sinking commodity prices, contracting global trade, capital flight out of developing economies, declining values of emerging market currencies, ongoing conflict, collapsing states and the resultant refugee crisis in the Middle East, and we're only four weeks into the year. There is a heightened sense of pessimism and systemic risk in the global economy. From a developed-world view, the global recovery may be stalling. From an emerging markets' perspective, it appears we are descending into crisis, this time not so much from a financial shock as a slow-motion structural decline.In the US, the economy appears to be strong, and most analysts expect solid, if unexceptional, growth to continue. But the US's relatively robust growth outlook is characterised by rising income inequality. It has much to do with where economic growth is happening. And, as was often true in the past, growth in the US is coming from industries that are at the leading edge of technology. This has entailed an increased demand (and higher pay) for highly skilled workers, and a declining demand (and lower compensation) for those without substantial skills.story_article_left1In Europe, growth remains slow in several countries, restrained by troubled bank-balance sheets, onerous regulations and a poor eurozone architecture. How the politics unfolds in the year ahead will be significant in determining Europe's path. In the UK, a possible referendum on EU membership could determine the economic path not only of the UK, but of Europe .Japan managed to avoid recession in 2015 and will continue to sputter along in 2016. Pessimism about Japan, however, may be misplaced if one considers the country's unique demographics. Japan is getting old faster than any other country, and its working-age population is declining rapidly. Per capita GDP is actually growing at a moderate pace. Several of the country's global companies are among the most innovative in the world, are boosting their productivity and are expanding globally, including in Africa.The supercharged days of double-digit growth in China are clearly over, but the economy is now "rebalancing" from one driven by overinvestment towards a consumer- and services-driven economy.Despite the bursting of China's short-lived stock market bubble - the market has always been divorced from the real growth story, anyway - China's economic fundamentals remain pretty much intact. The stock market is equivalent to (a small) 3% of GDP. It is more of a confidence issue than one of economic impact.Balancing the forces of protection, state-ownership, market reform and productivity will be incredibly difficult for Beijing .As China's growth recalibrates and its resource-intensive growth model subsides, the implications for resource-exporting economies are being dramatically felt.block_quotes_start Perhaps 2016 will be the year that African states shake off tired ideologies, invest in human capital and begin pragmatic reform block_quotes_endThe slowdown in China, blistering oil production in Saudi Arabia, Iran rejoining the global economy and the impact of shale gas in the US have led to a rapid drop in the price of oil. Although this has suppressed inflation in the developed world, it has hurt growth in oil-propelled emerging countries. Russia, Brazil, Nigeria and Angola are all experiencing very challenging economic times. This year, growth will be stymied elsewhere, with Turkey, South Africa and Indonesia at risk. A huge pile of corporate debt in emerging countries risks creating greater financial market stress.In India, declining oil prices have given the central bank room to ease monetary policy, thus boosting growth, which has surpassed China and is approaching double digits.Incremental reform coupled with the "Modi effect" - a confidence-inspiring political shift - has boosted confidence in the India growth story.In Africa, 2016 promises to be another year of economic readjustment for most economies whose terms of trade have turned negative following the end of the commodity super-cycle.Economic headwinds are often compounded by lethargic governments unwilling to carry out overdue structural reforms.story_article_right2Yet we are beginning to see numerous countries turn the corner, led by public sector reforms .It's early days for the Tanzanian administration, but moves to counter corruption and government lethargy are promising. Kenya can turn a corner if its leadership shows greater commitment to fighting corruption. Oil-propelled economies in western Africa arguably face the greatest reform difficulties. Nigeria and Angola are overly dependent on a single commodity (oil) and are now undergoing severe corrections impacting upon their growth outlook. Rapid decelerating growth in many such economies makes it clear that Africa cannot continue to rely on commodities. This tired model is overdue for a change. Manufacturing and services are the only options to pursue.Perhaps 2016 will be the year that African states shake off tired ideologies, invest in human capital and begin pragmatic reform that emulates what Asian economies did three decades ago. Inclusive growth pursues diversification and benefits entire populations. Commodity-driven economies can no longer rely on cycles for growth spurts. Sustainable growth can only come from economies driven by ideas rather than resources.This will be the differentiator for those economies that are truly emerging from this year.Kalish is chief global economist at Deloitte and Davies is MD: emerging markets & Africa at Deloitte-Frontier Advisory..