One man's tantrums dare not spoil it for SA

16 October 2016 - 02:03 By RON DERBY

In the battle for control of South Africa's resources, I thought high season was reached when Nhlanhla Nene was suddenly and rather surprisingly fired as finance minister last December. Seemingly not so, the next 10 days will be the main highlight reel for years to come. Time is indeed running out for a president in his final lap. While the national budget at the start of the year has all the pomp and ceremony, it's really the medium-term budget where you want your guy to be doing your bidding.As we've seen over the past few years, the president's men at Treasury haven't been doing his, nor that of some of his other irate members in his cabinet.Having messed up the ouster of Nene in December, the president hasn't been able to reshuffle his cabinet with the obvious intention of removing his finance minister.story_article_left1It's his right in truth, but in losing the confidence of not only the public - evidenced by the poor showing of the ANC in the August local elections - but in his own party, it's a right that comes with a high cost.So here we are, a few days from the last budget that he can really influence, and his hands are tied. Next year, an elective conference awaits in December; I doubt he'd be too keen to be fiddling with the national kitty.So the last throw of the dice is to unleash the ambitions of a recently appointed NPA boss to destabilise Treasury's political principal.Gordhan responded by insisting that he'll not only defend himself, but that he'll be there to deliver the mini-budget on October 26, leaving his detractors - chief among them the president - in a rather difficult position.To fire another finance minister, after being forced to release a statement of support for him as recently as this week, would be disastrous.With confidence at such lows, the fallout from the axing of Nene would be a walk in the park by comparison.What a pickle.But there's one thing we should remember in this stand-off, which by the time this article has been published may have moved significantly, is that it's not about a man.The battle for the integrity of the national purse should not boil down to a brawl between those in favour of Gordhan and those against.In a low-growth environment, and especially in emerging market nations, the holder of the keys to the national purse is probably in the most high- pressured job in the country.story_article_right2In an emerging market world, putting a squeeze on spend and being fiscally prudent is something that is understandably not going to make any minister popular among his colleagues, some of whom want their departments to host events such as the Commonwealth Games or to start a nuclear build.To allow his detractors to simply remove the finance minister, instead of battling on the merits of their case, would be folly. To do so in such a climate is to fast-track South Africa to a Brazilian position.Over the past year, that country - which was once held up as an example for South Africa to follow - has had three different finance ministers.The musical chairs in that country came on the back of the steepest recession since the '30s.Should the credibility of South Africa's fiscal policy be lost to the tantrums of a president, it would lead to a downgrade to junk status.And it would get a whole lot worse for some time, before it gets better. Here's to the next 10 days in the battle for South Africa's sovereignty.E-mail derbyr@sundaytimes.co.za or find him on Twitter @ronderby..

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