Poll is all about Zuma

Municipal elections are supposed to be about local issues, but when the Independent Electoral Commission announces the final results of Wednesday's poll on Friday, it will be declaring the outcome of an unofficial referendum on President Jacob Zuma.

In the dying days of the election campaign, ANC leaders such as Gauteng premier David Makhura have gone out of their way to convince the public not to shun the party just because they are not happy with the way Zuma is running the country.

His leadership is expected to be a factor especially in areas like Gauteng, where the president's support is waning.

And the outcome will have far-reaching consequences for Zuma himself, affecting his chances of completing his term of office in 2019, and of anointing hissuccessor at the ANC's national conference next year.

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The results will mean either a weakened Zuma's early exit from the Union Buildings or a newly empowered Zuma undertaking a major reshuffle before Christmas.

First, what if the ANC performs relatively well at the polls, holding on to the nine metros it currently controls and keeping its national vote above 60%?

The greatest beneficiary of this would undoubtedly be Zuma, a man whose leadership has constantly been questioned within and outside the party, with his detractors saying his many scandals have led to the ANC losing support.

Buoyed by the results, Zuma would emerge with his hand strengthened. If Zuma leads the ANC to victory in these metros, his opponents within the party will have their main argument against him weakened.

His so-called premier league, a group of powerful ANC leaders who are lobbying for Zuma's successor - reportedly on his behalf - would trumpet the fact that under Zuma they managed to retain control of the major metros.

With a strengthened hand, he would be able to tackle issues he has not been able to deal with to his satisfaction ever since he overplayed his hand when he fired Nhlanhla Nene as finance minister and replaced him with an unknown.

It has been a tumultuous period for Zuma since then, with some of his cabinet ministers appearing to be singing from a different hymn book to that of the president.

Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and Blade Nzimande, the minister of higher education, have openly challenged Zuma allies in the government and state-owned entities.

block_quotes_start In Johannesburg, ANC insiders say they are confident of getting 56% of the votes on Wednesday - although the outcome is expected to be lower than that block_quotes_end

Gordhan has stood firm in opposing Zuma's appointees to parastatals such as SAA and Eskom. He is on record as disapproving of how SAA chairwoman Dudu Myeni runs the national carrier and there are rumours that the cabinet is sitting on a new board that he has submitted for appointment.

He has publicly clashed with Eskom CEO Brian Molefe on many issues, including the planned nuclear project.

This, and the National Treasury-led investigation into contracts involving Gupta-owned companies, has made him a strong candidate to get the boot should Zuma feel confident enough to recast his executive.

Nzimande, through the SACP, has been vocal about the shenanigans at the SABC and the government's approval of digital migration policy.

The SACP boasts of having blocked a reshuffle last year in which some of its leaders would have got the chop, by going public about plans to remove Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies.

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But making a noise about a pending reshuffle might not be enough to stop a cocksure Zuma who has just received the approval of the electorate.

But what if the ANC loses ? A loss in this election does not mean the ANC being kicked out of the municipalities it runs; i t would be considered a loss if the party' s national average dropped below 60% .

The party will comfortably retain eThekwini, Buffalo City in East London, Mangaung and Ekurhuleni. But it faces serious problems in Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay.

Much focus has been placed on Johannesburg as one of the cities where the ANC's grip on power is loosening. This view is informed by the fact that the party's support in Johannesburg dropped from 59% in 2011 to just above 52% in the 2014 elections.

However, in these three metros, the ANC has done what seems to be enough to retain them.

Besides mayor Parks Tau's popularity, Johannesburg is no longer marred by scandals such as the billing crisis that made the city's leadership unpopular.

Fortunately for Tau and his comrades, Julius Malema's EFF appears not to have captured the hearts and minds of Johannesburg residents as it has done in other parts of Gauteng.

In Johannesburg, ANC insiders say they are confident of getting 56% of the votes on Wednesday - although the outcome is expected to be lower than that.

As far as Gauteng is concerned, the party's headache is located in the country's capital city, Tshwane. An ugly internal squabble for control of the city between ANC regional chairman and outgoing mayor Sputla Ramokgopa and his deputy in the party, Mapiti Matsena, led to an intervention by higher structures who appointed ANC heavyweight Thoko Didiza as the ANC's mayoral candidate.

block_quotes_startZuma's detractors would call for his early exit, arguing that the once-glorious movement's image had suffered enough under him and that it would cost the party more votes block_quotes_end

The decision initially ignited chaotic scenes in Tshwane as party members claiming to be Ramokgopa's supporters went on the rampage, damaging public property in protest against the appointment of an "outsider".

But it seems that Didiza's election has rejuvenated the party's campaign as both factions - which had been expected to boycott the campaign had the opposing candidate been chosen - are now working for Didiza's victory.

But party leaders remain worried about the EFF's popularity in townships around Pretoria.

There is also the DA's growing support in the far north of the city, which is giving ANC leaders sleepless nights.

The DA has run an effective campaign in the city, helped by it being led by a local activist, mayoral candidate Solly Msimanga.

ANC insiders insist that their internal research puts them at 52% in Tshwane.

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An ANC victory in Tshwane will depend on high voter turnout. If many people come out to vote, the ANC may just keep control of the capital.

The party is also worried about what could be the biggest embarrassment: losing the Nelson Mandela Bay metro. The ANC has directed many resources to the metro in an attempt to persuade voters not to turn their backs on the party.

The deployment of South African Football Association president Danny Jordaan as mayor has improved the party's chances, especially in so-called coloured areas.

If the DA were to win this metro, it could be the beginning of what happened in 2006 when the DA won Cape Town and followed that by taking control of the Western Cape in the general election.

Losing Nelson Mandela Bay would be an embarrassment - not only because of the very name of the metro, but because it would mean that the home of revered ANC stalwart Govan Mbeki had fallen into opposition hands.

The party's decline in this metro started during the disastrous tenure of former mayor Nceba Faku. However, if the ANC loses this metro, Zuma's opponents will put the blame on him and the campaign to oust him would gain new impetus.

Zuma's detractors would call for his early exit, arguing that the once-glorious movement's image had suffered enough under him and that it would cost the party more votes to go to the 2019 general elections with him still a resident at Mahlamba Ndlopfu.

If he is recalled before Christmas, his successor is most likely to be someone not associated with him.

Zuma himself would suffer president Thabo Mbeki's fate, and we would be left wondering if he would be joining the campaign in 2019.

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