Why Mmusi's battle is also a test for SA

The DA leader faces a stiffer electoral test than his predecessors did, writes Tony Leon

On a visit to London last month, DA leader Mmusi Maimane had a meeting with a British friend of mine. My friend said he was impressed with Maimane, but embarrassed that he had kept calling the DA leader "Moses".

In response to this apparent faux pas, I suggested that Maimane - an ordained church minister - would probably not have minded the substitution.

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But I further suggested that a better biblical comparison would be Joshua, since Moses could only lead the chosen people towards the Promised Land, whereas Joshua was the one elected to enter it.

Without over-egging the comparison, Wednesday's local government elections is crunch time for the leader of the DA. Elected to the post by virtual acclamation just over a year ago, he has not had much time to put his stamp on the party. .

His two predecessors, myself and Helen Zille, had more time, although fewer tailwinds, to prepare for the polls.

As the first DA leader, I had to, in adverse and controversial circumstances, advance the legitimacy of the very concept of opposition itself in the era of Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki.

Then came the practicalities of consolidating the opposition forces - the Democratic Party, the New National Party and later the Independent Democrats - in circumstances when nothing divided them more than the issue of their unity.

When Zille took over she had to both refresh the party's appeal and consolidate the movement as the natural party of government in the Western Cape, an initially fragile base that she converted into an opposition fortress.

I remember repeating, while still party leader 10 years ago and the DA edged into power in the Mother City in the 2006 local government elections, that winning Cape Town was the party's "get out of jail card". It proved, in one city at least, that the opposition could move from the rhetoric of opposition to the realities of government and hold up the prospects of replicating this model.

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But if it was crucial for the DA leader and the party's viability a decade ago to win the city of Cape Town, on Wednesday it is imperative for Maimane to prove that the party can win a city or two other than Cape Town.

block_quotes_start Elections are, of course, zero-sum games; for every winner there must be a loser. Wednesday's poll is not a Montessori school, where every pupil receives a gold star block_quotes_end

There are both internal and external reasons why it will be a real, though perhaps cruel, failure of leadership if Maimane does not preside over victories in at least one of the hotly contested metros. In order of likelihood for the DA, they are Port Elizabeth (Nelson Mandela Bay), Pretoria (Tshwane) and Johannesburg - the biggest prize of all, although that is possibly out of reach.

Internally, no party leader is without both critics and sharks.

The first group, who gripe about strategies and principles, are often sincere and can be reasoned with. The sharks are those of thwarted or future ambition who have an unerring nose for weakness and blood in the water.

And if the leader does not deliver success, they will go in for the attack, if not the kill.

Conversely, a DA win in a metro outside Cape Town will still any critic and more or less allow Maimane to hold his position for as long as he wants.

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Externally, in this year of economic meltdown, joblessness approaching nine million, state capture and a tide of corruption, if the official opposition cannot post a big win somewhere other than Cape Town, then it is fair to ask an elemental question: does South Africa have any prospect of peaceful, democratic renewal?

It is one thing, and not an insignificant accomplishment, that the highest court of the land can hold that the president of the republic "violated the constitution".

But if this judgment of the Constitutional Court finds no echo, or consequence, among the electorate at large, it will be clear that South Africa's constitutional mechanisms are faulty. Or worse, imperilled.

Elections are, of course, zero-sum games; for every winner there must be a loser. Wednesday's poll is not a Montessori school, where every pupil receives a gold star.

So for Maimane to succeed, President Jacob Zuma must lose. Or at least preside over the defeat of his party in one of its hitherto stronghold cities, or two of them.

Whatever combination of fraying unity, naked self-interest or ruthless ability to marginalise internal opponents has kept Zuma afloat until now, even his party has its limits.

Indeed, whatever grievous damage the ANC patronage machine and cadre deployment has writ on both the economy and polity of South Africa, provided the ANC occupied winning ground and dominated the political landscape, a lot of people could be bought off or silenced.

But not only would the loss of a metro or two terminate the careers of a great many party hangers-on, it would also suggest that unless immediate rectification commences - changing the man at the top - the party's entire grip of power will be loosened.

In those circumstances, both critics and sharks, in the much bigger waters in which the ANC swims, will find a common target in No1.

block_quotes_start This election will also be about determining the fates and futures of just three men, none of whom are actually on the ballot. block_quotes_end

Conversely, if Zuma once more defies the political death spiral, he will be able to set the terms for his own departure and, crucially, anoint his successor.

The election has, as well, a third man in the ring, the populist leader of the EFF, Julius Malema. Will he be able to convert his outsize presence and posturing in politics into actual achievements at the polls? Or will the election cut him down to size?

It is one thing to fill stadiums, boast about being a "government in waiting" and harry Zuma with extreme epithets. But what if he does not win a single municipality and doesn't significantly exceed his modest 6% hold of the electorate?

He will soon discover that loud bullies command attention for only so long. Although his preferred examples of ideal states are in ruinous Venezuela and neighbouring Zimbabwe, there's an old expression from the state of Texas which Malema will either prove or disprove three days from now. Boastful Texans are called "all hat and no cattle" - a lot of bluster without the herd to back it up.

The Independent Electoral Commission says the poll on Wednesday has a record 63,718 candidates participating. But in reality, this election will also be about determining the fates and futures of just three men, none of whom are actually on the ballot.