A new trade union federation looks set to be established by the end of the year amid warnings from analysts that a split in Cosatu would result in labour market instability. Fresh from a humiliating defeat at Cosatu's special national congress last week, supporters of its axed general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi say they are now working to have a rival federation set up in the next six months.At the forefront of the plans is metalworkers union Numsa, which was Cosatu's largest affiliate - with more than 375000 members - before it was kicked out last year.Numsa and Vavi fell out with Cosatu president Sdumo Dlamini and other federation leaders over whether the federation should continue to back the governing ANC.story_article_left1Numsa wants trade unions to form their own "United Front" as an independent political vehicle, while the majority of Cosatu unions want to remain within the ANC-led alliance.Numsa general secretary Irvin Jim confirmed that the union would hold a special meeting of its national executive committee on Tuesday, when the way forward would be discussed.Jim said the union already had a mandate from its members to form a new federation if plans to "recapture" Cosatu failed."A new federation will be formed after we have exhausted all avenues available to us," Jim said.But Numsa's plans could hit a snag, with some of the nine Cosatu affiliates aligned with it reluctant to cut ties with the federation and its alliance partners - the ANC and SACP.As Jim, Vavi and a number of their allies talked up the imminent split, it emerged that some of the unions in their camp still believe they have a fighting chance to "win back" Cosatu when the federation holds its elective conference in November.The Democratic Nursing Organisation of South Africa, Denosa, which has backed calls for Vavi and Numsa to be reinstated, this week distanced itself from plans to form a new federation."The matter is not even under consideration. We have never contemplated pulling out of Cosatu. That discussion does not exist," said Denosa deputy president Letsatsi Modise.His union, he insisted, would continue to fight Dlamini "from within - we have always been clear that we will fight internally".His strategy is backed by the Food and Allied Workers Union, another of the pro-Vavi unions.Fawu general secretary Katishi Masemola said on Thursday that his union had decided to take its fight for Vavi and Numsa's reinstatement to the Cosatu elective congress."We are going to the congress. We are confident we will win this time. Voting was a sham and undemocratic at the special national congress ..."Had the ballot been secret, I know we would have won ... By November we would have made adequate advances, the congress will be a watershed moment for us," he said.But Vavi poured scorn on the potential for change at the November congress, saying "it will be a sham" with only "hand-picked loyal sycophants" as delegates."We need more urgently than ever a strong, united, independent and democratic workers' organisation to fight for the interests of the poor," Vavi said.full_story_image_hleft1A "workers' summit" would be convened soon, he said, to discuss the formation of a new federation."I do not want to [pre-empt] the decisions that this summit will adopt, but I am confident that it will resolve to end the paralysis and take forward the struggle which Cosatu used to lead."Dlamini issued a strong warning to Cosatu affiliates not to attend a summit organised independently of the federation."I don't anticipate that these unions could meet outside the Cosatu structures and even publicly declare that they are going to [form a new federation]," he said.However, Numsa's plans for a new federation are at an advanced stage with an internal union document showing that it was already looking for office space for Vavi and others expected to lead the process.According to the document, a number of Numsa leaders and other trade unionists expelled from pro-Dlamini unions were already deployed across the country to win over Cosatu members and structures.Analysts warn that the creation of a rival federation to Cosatu could lead to labour market instability."Labour needs to speak with one voice. If we have two competing trade union federations, it would further destabilise the country and the economy at large," said political economy analyst Daniel Silke.sub_head_start How Cosatu's rank-and-file unions line up behind their champions sub_head_endUNIONS ALIGNED TO SDUMO DLAMININational Education, Health and Allied Workers' Union (Nehawu)Members: 270000This public sector union is the biggest Cosatu affiliate in terms of membership. It has been consistent in its opposition to Zwelinzima Vavi's leadership since cracks appeared at the 2012 Cosatu congress. Except for a few delegates from its Tshwane branch, the union's significant majority threw its weight behind Cosatu president Sdumo Dlamini's leadership and voted as a bloc in opposing Vavi's backers.South African Democratic Teachers' Union (Sadtu)Members: 260000story_article_left2Vavi's staunch backer in the teachers' union, former union president Thobile Ntola, was booted out of the union a year ago. This emboldened the anti-Vavi camp, led by general secretary Mugwena Maluleke. Ntola's allies in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo have given Maluleke sleepless nights as they continue to demand Vavi's return. Ntola has since started his own union.Police and Prisons Civil Rights Union (Popcru)Members: 160000As Dlamini's supporters put it, "Popcru is solid". This is because there are no known Vavi backers in it. Popcru has not forgiven Vavi and Irvin Jim for condemning the police action at Marikana, a stance they see as "opportunistic". The police were the most energetic at the Cosatu special national congress in singing anti-Vavi songs.South African Transport and Allied Workers' Union (Satawu):Members: 218014When Cosatu leaders refer to the problem of "business unionism", they are referring to Satawu's squabble over control of union investment funds. Divisions in this union are said to have little to do with Vavi and Numsa's dismissal. A faction in the union wants to remove general secretary Zenzo Mahlangu and other national office bearers at the next congress.National Union of Mineworkers (NUM):Members: 250000Dlamini and his supporters were stunned last month when ally Frans Baleni suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of little-known Free State unionist David Sipunzi. Sipunzi immediately called for Vavi's reinstatement and the return of Numsa. However, the NUM national executive committee is still behind Dlamini. Sipunzi was humiliated at the Cosatu special national congress when most NUM delegates voted with Dlamini supporters. UNIONS ALIGNED TO ZWELINZIMA VAVIFood and Allied Workers' Union (Fawu)Members: 150000The successor to the Food and Canning Workers' Union, Fawu has been organising in the food sector for more than 70 years. It has been relentless in its support for Vavi. A KwaZulu-Natal shop steward said at the special national congress that Vavi was the "only hope" for dwindling private sector labour unions.Democratic Nursing Organisation of South Africa (Denosa)Members: 80000story_article_right3The nurses and midwives' union was one of the nine unions involved in this week's special national congress. Its support for Vavi was not as fierce as that of the other eight unions, but it did push for reforms by supporting a court challenge to force Cosatu to a special national congress. Its leaders ruled out any plans to split from Cosatu and vowed to take the fight to the ordinary national congress in November.South African Commercial, Catering and Allied Workers' Union (Saccawu)Members: 120000The union organises in the low-wage retail and hospitality sectors, where job security is threatened by casual labour. It has long been aligned with a faction that sought to retain Vavi. The union faces the threat of liquidation due to unpaid Cosatu affiliation fees. General secretary Bones Skulu has vowed to continue making "fierce calls" to reinstate both Vavi and Numsa.South African Municipal Workers' Union (Samwu)Members: 127000This is about the biggest public sector union that has broken ranks. However, its president and secretary are reported to have opposing views over Vavi, as do provincial secretaries. General secretary Walter Theledi welcomed the expulsion of Vavi from Cosatu.South African Football Players' Union (Safpu)Members: 560Led by former Kaizer Chiefs marksman Simba Marumo, the union is Cosatu's smallest, with little clout. It dribbled its way into the big league by aligning with those unions calling for a special national congress.shobas@sundaytimes.co.zaolifantn@sundaytimes.co.za..