An unstable economy, electricity constraints, forest fires driven by climate change and organised crime are among the key concerns keeping South Africans awake at night.
The concerns stem from the Munich Security Conference — a gathering of leaders discussing the world’s most pressing security challenges — held at the weekend in Germany.
The conference drew world leaders, ministers, CEOs, analysts and academics. This year, about 60 heads of state, 150 ministers and leaders of international organisations, including the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), were scheduled to attend.
The Munich Security Report 2025, as part of the conference, flagged crucial global security challenges and included a chapter on South Africa.
The country also featured in the Munich Security Index — a global survey in which respondents from the G7 and Brics countries (minus Russia) shared concerns about the highest, most immediate risks to their countries — be it organised crime and extreme weather or cyberattacks and rising inequality, for example.
“Economic and energy concerns dominate South African respondents’ top risks, with the threats of an economic or financial crisis and energy supply disruption both scoring 72 on the risk index. However, both risks have fallen in the index score,” read the report.
“Environmental issues cluster near the top of South African respondents’ concerns, with climate change, extreme weather and forest fires, and the destruction of natural habitats all ranking in the top five positions and scoring between 69 and 71 points on the risk index.”
The highest possible risk index score is 100 and the lowest 0.
“There has been a notable increase in concern about international organised crime in South Africa, up five positions this year to become the eighth-place risk. South African respondents remain more concerned about food shortages than any other country, even with the risk dropping by 13 index points since last year.”
We need to decide what we want to use the SANDF for. In my view it should be restructured and focus on a role of emergency response and prevention which would include what we use the SANDF for, such as support to the police, border security, peacekeeping.
— Jakkie Cilliers, founder and former executive director of the ISS
The latest security report noted a decline in South Africa’s regional political and economic influence. A chapter titled The Fate of Good Hope said Pretoria was once regarded as the “natural leader” of the African continent and an international moral authority.
“Over the past decades, however, this status has dwindled: material and soft power have declined, an inconsistent track record on human rights and the implementation of international law has undermined South Africa’s 'moral high ground', and growing anti-Westernism has weakened its role as a bridge-builder between countries of the so-called Global South and Global North,” said the report.
“As anti-Westernism has increasingly overshadowed Pretoria’s commitment to international law and multilateralism, South Africa’s international stature as a bridge-builder and normative force has dwindled. Its decline in hard and soft power, coupled with its contested role on the continent and domestic democratic discontent and economic woes have further constrained the country’s international position.”
According to the report, South Africa faces major economic challenges.
“While still substantial, South Africa’s relative economic clout in Africa is declining. Compared with the world’s economic powers and its Brics peers, its GDP is just a fraction — and is expected to further decrease.”
Jakkie Cilliers, founder and former executive director of the ISS, said South Africa’s international influence was not “really declining” given the country’s involvement in Brics, the G20, Gaza and Ukraine.
“What has declined is our leadership and engagement in Africa and our ability to contribute to peacebuilding and peacekeeping. When South Africa first started to engage in the Democratic Republic of the Congo after the Sun City accords, we had much more capacity and willingness to engage from then foreign affairs and defence, for example,” said Cilliers.
“Organised crime is a growing international threat,” he added.
“It requires international co-operation which is being seriously undermined by the actions of the Trump administration. Our focus should be to first clean up our own yard, such as meeting the various international agreements we are party to, including those from the Financial Action Task Force,” said Cilliers.
The country could improve internal security through police reform, decentralising SAPS, restructuring its operations and prioritising murder.
“We need to decide what we want to use the SANDF for. In my view it should be restructured and focus on a role of emergency response and prevention which would include what we use the SANDF for, such as support to the police, border security, peacekeeping. We should train and equip the SANDF for that and stop pretending and speaking about conventional defence and operations,” said Cilliers.
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