Risk analysts have stuck out their necks and predicted that Cyril Ramaphosa will most likely emerge victorious in the ANC's succession battle, but this may not translate to an easy ride for business.
Global consultancy Control Risks launched its 2017 Riskmap yesterday, forecasting the potential impact of political events on business.
In its Southern African outlook, it found that succession politics had emerged as a trend in the risk profiles of countries in the region.
Angola, Zimbabwe, and South Africa are all due for new leaders or prospective leaders in the coming year. Control Risks analyst Seamus Duggan said that, in South Africa, former African Union commission chairman Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma was likely to lose to Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa.
"There are two things we need to look at when we talk about the ANC succession. The first of them is whether Cyril Ramaphosa is able to split the KwaZulu-Natal branch delegate vote at the December 2017 conference.
"It has traditionally been a Dlamini-Zuma stronghold but it increasingly looks as if Ramaphosa will be able to split the KZN vote."
- TMG Digital