While experts monitor Covid-19 infections across the country, Discovery CEO Adrian Gore says his company is anticipating a possible fifth wave in the next few months.
While the emergence of waves can be somewhat unpredictable due to several factors, Gore said research has show the duration from the peak of one wave to the other was about 170 days. That would put the next wave possibly at the end of next month or early May.
He said the next wave would likely be less severe than previous ones, but still urged caution.
“Our view is that a wave could come end of April or May on the same pattern. It may be more severe — we still think that is unlikely, but it is a risk and therefore I think that we must be careful not to take a hard view,” he said, adding he believed in hoping for the best but planning for the worst.
Gore's prediction echoes that of both health minister Joe Phaahla and epidemiologist Prof Salim Abdool Karim.
Speaking on SABC News, Phaahla said the fifth wave could be worsened by cold weather and the flu season.
“If there is no variant of serious concern very soon, we definitely would expect a wave somewhere about May, when winter starts. That’s when people start to congregate indoors because of the cold. That’s also when the flu season starts,” he said.
“We expect possibly the middle to end of May, that’s when we expect the next wave. It might come earlier, like we saw last year.”
Abdool Karim told Jacaranda FM the duration between waves is about three months.
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When can SA expect a fifth wave of Covid-19 infections?
While experts monitor Covid-19 infections across the country, Discovery CEO Adrian Gore says his company is anticipating a possible fifth wave in the next few months.
While the emergence of waves can be somewhat unpredictable due to several factors, Gore said research has show the duration from the peak of one wave to the other was about 170 days. That would put the next wave possibly at the end of next month or early May.
He said the next wave would likely be less severe than previous ones, but still urged caution.
“Our view is that a wave could come end of April or May on the same pattern. It may be more severe — we still think that is unlikely, but it is a risk and therefore I think that we must be careful not to take a hard view,” he said, adding he believed in hoping for the best but planning for the worst.
Gore's prediction echoes that of both health minister Joe Phaahla and epidemiologist Prof Salim Abdool Karim.
Speaking on SABC News, Phaahla said the fifth wave could be worsened by cold weather and the flu season.
“If there is no variant of serious concern very soon, we definitely would expect a wave somewhere about May, when winter starts. That’s when people start to congregate indoors because of the cold. That’s also when the flu season starts,” he said.
“We expect possibly the middle to end of May, that’s when we expect the next wave. It might come earlier, like we saw last year.”
Abdool Karim told Jacaranda FM the duration between waves is about three months.
“We work on a rough basis that we get a wave after about three months. Our Omicron wave ended about two weeks ago, so that means we now have about three months before we see the next wave. We can expect that we will see the fifth wave about the end of April or thereabouts,” he said last month.
He said the next wave will be driven by a new variant.
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