Protection of Mozambique’s multibillion-dollar gas fields could devolve into a proxy war if the embattled state cannot rebuff an insurgency that has swept across the northern reaches of the country.
Since 2017, Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jamo, which is believed to be supported by the Islamic State group, has carried out violent attacks in the gas-rich northern province of Cabo Delgado.
The insurgency has gained purchase in recent months with the sacking of the key port town of Mocimboa da Praia, setting the scene for an offensive that saw militants sweeping across a string of islands, home to SA-owned tourist resorts.
With Mozambique’s armed forces perilously under-resourced, they have been beaten back by insurgents who have continued to take ground.
The threat to the Mozambique LNG project, estimated to be worth more than R1-trillion, has seen a commitment from Maputo to safeguard the development.
In a statement released by fuel giant Total, a memorandum of understanding provides that a Joint Task Force will ensure the security of Mozambique LNG project activities in Afungi site and across the broader area of operations of the project.
“Mozambique LNG shall provide logistic support to the Joint Task Force. The government of Mozambique is committed that the Joint Task Force personnel shall act according to the voluntary principles on security and human rights,” a statement reads.
But according to website Carta de Mozambique, a key clause could see Total providing its own security for the project if the army fails.
As the conflict wages on, this could see additional private military resources entering the fray. This could not be independently verified at the time of publishing, and Total had not responded to requests for comment.
In June, gunmen ambushed and killed eight employees of a private construction firm working on the project.
Fenix Constructions Service Lda, subcontracted by Total, said five gunmen wearing military fatigues similar to those worn by the Mozambican government forces staged the attack.
Private SA security firm Dyck Advisory Group (DAG) has already established operations in the country, fighting alongside the Mozambican army.
It is understood that they provide close air support with helicopters from SA, as well as training for the Mozambican army.
In August, international relations minister Naledi Pandor said the SA and Mozambican governments were “in discussions as to how we might lend support”, opening the door to the possibility of having SA soldiers entering the theatre.
