Spring and summer this year are likely to be wetter and hotter than normal.
The South African Weather Service (Saws) says La Niña conditions expected to develop with high confidence will probably result in above normal rainfall for South Africa’s northeastern summer rainfall regions.
KwaZulu-Natal may experience early above normal rainfall, raising flood risks as dams are at or near capacity.
Saws held a briefing for the National Press Club on Tuesday, where it spoke about the summer outlook, saying the forecast shows summer will mostly be hotter than normal.
Conditions could pose public health risks and the occurrence of natural disasters, especially flooding.
Measures such as establishing proper drainage systems must be taken to safeguard against floods. Without proactive measures in anticipation of impending above average rainfall we are likely to see drownings, injuries and hypothermia.
— Christien Engelbrecht, Saws lead scientist
Saws scientist Cobus Olivier said the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) is in a neutral state, with rapid cooling experienced in the past month, which could result in a weak La Niña event in the next month if predictions hold true.
For South Africa this translates into generally favourable rainfall conditions for the summer rainfall areas in the northeastern parts of the country and an increased likelihood of flooding.
Saws lead scientist Christien Engelbrecht said predictions indicate that the North West, parts of the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and parts of the Eastern Cape will receive above-normal rainfall, which will benefit water reservoirs.
“However, measures such as establishing proper drainage systems must be taken to safeguard against floods. Without proactive measures in anticipation of impending above-average rainfall we are likely to see drownings, injuries and hypothermia,” she said.
However, Engelbrecht said for parts of Mpumalanga and Limpopo predictions indicate below-average rainfall, which could worsen existing drought conditions in these areas.
Forecast models predict higher chances of above-normal rainfall for the central interior agricultural regions, especially from December to February.
“Farmers are encouraged to implement soil and water conservation measures, proper harvesting and storage techniques and proper drainage systems to mitigate these effects.”
The seasonal forecast also anticipates above normal minimum and maximum temperatures around the country, with exceptions in the southwestern coastal areas which will be below normal.
“The latter affects cities mostly in the Northen Cape and parts of the Western Cape, while the increased minimum and maximum temperatures will be the status quo throughout the rest of the country,” Olivier said.
“This means measures must be taken to mitigate the risk of heat-related illnesses, which cause harm to human health and accelerate the growth of foodborne pathogens.”
TimesLIVE
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