When World War 2 ended in 1945, Winston Churchill was asked how he had known what Adolf Hitler was planning for Europe and the Jews. Simple, replied Churchill, “I read Mein Kampf.”
Similarly, if the EFF ever comes to power, and when in a decade’s time we survey the ruins of a once-promising country, let none say they weren’t warned about what a Julius Malema presidency would mean for SA. In a word, disaster. That’s his unspoken promise.
You might have thought that for sheer incompetence and wastefulness an ANC government would be hard to top. But Malema’s work is not yet done and there’s nothing in what he has said or done that suggests the least remedy for SA’s problems. If anything, matters could get a lot worse, from the economy to race relations, from civil liberties to personal safety and security.
Yet the chances of Malema becoming president one day, possibly even next year, are improving by the day, assisted by the hollow mannequins that populate our political firmament as they go listlessly through the motions.
As his party celebrates its 10th anniversary this week, why should the man many regard as a nonprincipled rabble-rouser, a master of inciting envy and distrust, be so sure of occupying the desk from which we are now governed in such lackadaisical manner by President Cyril Ramaphosa? Here are four reasons, just for starters.
First is the personality and political genius of Malema. He is an unstoppable force who deals only in extremes and superlatives. The middle-ground is a place he has never visited. He’s very funny too, which always helps.
He rose to the top of the ANC Youth League by virtue of a rigged election in 2008, in a contest made notorious by the appearance of the bare backside as a weapon of political combat.
Aware that the ANC is weak on mines and land, two pillars of the struggle against apartheid, he advocated for nationalising the mines and bringing all land under state ownership. This marked him out as a radical, especially alongside ANC comrades who were busy inveigling themselves into private-company boardrooms. His “empowerment”, if one can call it that, has been of a more furtive nature, such as Limpopo government contracts and dealings with shadowy figures.
Part of Malema’s genius is his ability to hold contradictory views with apparent credibility. Once he was prepared to “kill for Zuma”, later he would lead the “pay back the money” chorus in parliament that crippled former president Jacob Zuma. He has worked hard for his reputation as a flip-flopper of note.
Our system, as we have seen in the metros, is also open to abuse in conferring titular authority on a nonentity as perfect cover to divvy up the spoils of office behind the scenes, unhindered by media and a strong opposition.
Just four years after his 2008 breakthrough, he was expelled from the ANC and left on the pavement of politics with a bag of radical cures for the economy and a sack of resentment for those he believed had wronged him. He opened his own franchise for attracting and dispensing largesse and muscling money out of the public purse. He called it the EFF.
Though he may not care for the comparison, Malema has much in common with Hitler. Most obvious is the ferocity of his oratory, which distinguishes him from his desperately dull former ANC comrades. Also his ability to pick at the wounds of the past: in Hitler’s case it was the “stab in the back” allegedly suffered by Germany. For Malema it is the “betrayal of 1994”.
The second reason propelling Malema’s rise is the alleged failure of the ANC to make good on the promise of 1994. It is hardly coincidence that Malema has moved to occupy the ground held by a once-militant ANC, even releasing old struggle songs in a new album and adopting the posture and tactics of a revolutionary movement taking on the corrupt status quo. A “drain the swamp” leader for the tropics.
Malema has capitalised on ANC failures in a spectacular way, hardly acknowledging that the ANC has attempted to follow the path of constitutionalism and rule of law. His party, meanwhile, uses the “constitutional space” as a mere tactic for its aims, which it claims to be “revolutionary”.
And the ANC may at times come across as shrill on race, but the truth is, it has gone out of its way to promote nonracialism, which is a rather important feature in any credible vision of a prosperous country. For Malema though, race is a political weapon, a handy incendiary.
The third reason for Malema’s ascent is proportional representation and its tendency to give power and voice to parties beyond their level of support.
Our system, as we have seen in the metros, is also open to abuse in conferring titular authority on a nonentity as perfect cover to divvy up the spoils of office behind the scenes, unhindered by media and a strong opposition. The system is ideally suited to Malema, who will no doubt demand the big seat should the ANC come knocking next year.
Finally, if the masses come out to vote, Malema could be the big winner in his own right. The ANC’s incremental improvements, and there have been many not the least of which the creation of a substantial and wealthy black middle class, will be mocked as too little, too late. Lacking in populist oomph. Only the most extravagant and unaffordable quick-fixes will gain popular traction.
If the South African project is to flourish, we need to create conditions for the economy to grow (less ANC interference) and insist on a state that is competent and energetic (more state rigour), and doesn’t feature ministers talking like members of the opposition or, worse still, like student activists.
Such an option presents itself in a coalition between the ANC, the DA and other parties committed to constitutionalism, not as a tactic to further their aims (as the EFF unashamedly does) but as an article of faith in a reset of the democratic project.
The question is whether eventual rule by the EFF will become the most devastating of all the legacies bequeathed to SA by the ANC.
Given the risks, and the reality of Malema, the middle of the road has never been a safer place for SA to be right now.
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