Pyrrhic victory for Mugabe - the unwanted presidential candidate

Zanu-PF is stuck with President Robert Mugabe. The party is set to endorse the ailing 87-year-old as its candidate in the elections next year or in 2013 against the will of most of its senior members.

The party's annual conference starts on Tuesday and runs until Saturday in Bulawayo - the hotbed of opposition to Mugabe's repressive 31-year rule.

Zanu-PF's controversial succession issue - which is not on the official agenda - is likely to dominate discussions on the sidelines of the event.

There is consensus among senior party officials that Mugabe must retire before the next elections, but fear of the unknown has prevented them from tackling the issue head-on.

Zanu-PF leaders had an opportunity to deal with the matter on Wednesday in their decision-making politburo meeting - where important issues are discussed and resolved - but no one dared to challenge Mugabe.

Mugabe emerged unscathed and will be given a ringing endorsement at the conference as the party's presidential candidate.

However, senior party officials say Mugabe's triumph at the conference will be a "pyrrhic" victory, as the same officials who endorse him will not campaign for him as they did during the 2008 elections.

After Mugabe was endorsed in 2007, senior party officials, mainly from the faction led by the late retired army commander, general Solomon Mujuru, resorted to what is called bhora mudondo (literally kicking the ball into the jungle to disrupt play).

"The reality is most people want the president to retire but no one has the courage to break the ice on that issue," a senior politburo member said.

"So he is going to be endorsed at conference but then it doesn't help because the same people will not go out after that to campaign for him. It would be like the story of King Pyrrhus indeed, registering a victory which is as costly as defeat."

After addressing his central committee on Thursday, the day following the politburo meeting, Mugabe said the Bulawayo conference would be "critical" as it would be the last gathering for Zanu-PF before the crucial elections.

Mugabe views the next elections as a do-or-die affair, because it will be his last electoral battle given his age and ill-health. "It is a critical meeting that we should prepare for adequately since it is the last conference before we go for general elections," he said.

"The forthcoming conference more or less has the same status as our five-year congress."

According to the Zanu-PF constitution, one of the powers and functions of the conference is to declare the president of the party elected at congress as the party's candidate.

In between regular congresses the change of a presidential candidate can only be done at an extraordinary congress. Six weeks' notice is required to convene such a congress.

Because Mugabe was duly elected at the party's 2009 congress, he remains Zanu-PF's presidential candidate until the next scheduled congress in 2014, unless an extraordinary congress is convened to remove him.

But for now senior party officials say they are stuck with Mugabe, whom they fear will be a liability during the next elections.

The elevation of the Bulawayo conference to a near-congress status allows Zanu-PF to tinker with its leadership issues.

Most senior officials wanted it to be changed to full a congress so that they could push for leadership changes, but that bid was resisted by Mugabe and his loyalists.

The politburo on Wednesday finalised the agenda for the conference which include indigenisation and empowerment, land and the economy.

Mugabe is set to officially open the conference on Thursday and issues will then be debated on Friday and Saturday. Parties from the region to be represented at the conference include Frelimo from Mozambique, Angola's MPLA, Namibia's Swapo, Zambia's almost defunct Unip, Chama Chamapinduzi of Tanzania and the ANC from South Africa.