Serious clash of heads

Zuma is under pressure to secure the ruling party's top job - if only to avoid the humiliation of being 'recalled' from the Union Buildings

Only two men can save the ANC from what many now believe to be an inevitable leadership battle the nastiness of which will overshadow the party's centenary celebrations next year.

ANC president Jacob Zuma and his deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe, can prevent a repeat of Polokwane - which nearly tore the party apart - by frankly discussing their ambitions before the ANC conference in Mangaung next year.

Although a dozen other names are being touted as potential candidates for the presidency of the ANC, the reality is that, unless a political disaster of great proportion hits both men, the next conference will elect either Zuma or Motlanthe to lead the ANC for the next five years.

The other presidential hopefuls cannot launch credible campaigns without discernible and strong constituencies on which they can rely.

They would probably stand a greater chance if they were to make bids for the presidency of the party at its conference in 2017.

Motlanthe, on the other hand, has become a rallying point for many of those who see no wisdom in handing Zuma a second term.

And it is not just the ANC Youth League and its fellow travellers who want change.

Although Motlanthe has not publicly stated that he wants the job - he is reportedly just as reticent on the subject in private - I don't see him declining if he is nominated by the majority of party branches.

His greatest fear, according to those who claim to speak on his behalf, is that a race against Msholozi - so soon after the Zuma-Thabo Mbeki Polokwane face-off - could irreparably damage the ANC.

Zuma, too, has not said whether he is available for re-election, arguing - like Motlanthe and other leaders - that party structures will make the decision next year.

But he clearly wants another five years at the helm.

And it is no longer just a question of choice for him, it is now a matter of necessity.

Though it may be true - as some of his pre-Polokwane campaigners intimate in private conversations - that Zuma promised to be a one-term ANC president, he probably realises now that he needs to stay on beyond next year if only to avoid the humiliation of being "recalled" from the Union Buildings before completing a full term in 2014.

I know it sounds far-fetched right now, but who in 2006 would have imagined that Mbeki would not complete his second term as head of state?

Embattled ANC Youth League leaders already publicly display their disdain for Zuma by not acknowledging his presidency in slogans acknowledging past and present ANC leaders. Do you really think they will afford him the dignity of finishing five years in MahlambaNdlopfu were he to lose in Mangaung?

From where Zuma is sitting, ANC re-election must seem like the best insurance against a recall.

Yet there is another way. Instead of leaving everything "to the branches", and therefore risking the leadership contest getting out of hand, Zuma and Motlanthe can politically manage the process by first being open to each other about their intentions.

If both want the job, they can both set the ground rules on how the race will be conducted without deepening the already existing divisions.

If Zuma is willing to give up the presidency of the party but fears further political reprisal inspired by its youth league, he can enter into a deal with his deputy under which he undertakes not to contest the poll in return for Motlanthe's assurance that he will be allowed to finish his term of office as the president of South Africa.

The other option could be that Zuma is allowed to stand uncontested in 2012 but then steps down as head of state at the end of his term in 2014 in favour of a Motlanthe presidency.