Tweet away but ANC will decide Zuma's future

There seem to be two kinds of people in South Africa at the moment: those who loudly proclaim that they want to see the back of President Jacob Zuma and those who don't talk about it.

But which is in the majority? And will popular opinion have any influence?

Yesterday the president of one of the country's biggest trade unions, the National Union of Metalworkers (Numsa), said that calls for Zuma's resignation should be taken seriously and debated.

A cacophony of voices on the social media, and some in the press, say Numsa's stance is further proof that Zuma is under siege, that public disapproval of the millions spent on his private home has reached a tipping point, and that his humiliation before a booing crowd at Nelson Mandela's memorial service was a portent of his fall.

A Numsa breakaway from Cosatu would be damaging to the ruling alliance but the union's call for Zuma's head is unlikely to sway the ANC. Numsa might grab headlines but it does not have the clout to unravel the alliance and so is unlikely to be the catalyst for the president's axing.

And one must be sceptical about the efficacy of online petitions, Facebook groups and the baying for Zuma's blood of the twitterati.

Politicians have thick skins and political parties are self-interested. The ANC power brokers will note the boos and demands for the president to go but, until there is a shift in sentiment within the party itself, Zuma will remain in office.

There is little if any indication that the party believes that its 2014 electoral chances will be improved by removing its head. There is no hint of a campaign to "recall" the president.

So we shouldn't get our hopes up.