No big winners even if platinum mines and workers settle

Imagine missing three pay cheques. It would devastate your cash flow. If you had money saved, you could draw on that, financing your consumption from your earlier thrift.

If you did not have savings, you would have to borrow to survive. And without a steady income, only the dodgier parts of the financial sector will touch you. They charge steep - often unregulated - interest rates and murky fees. You do not want to be at their mercy.

This is what has happened to platinum workers over the past three months. No work, no pay. No pay, no money. No money is not an option, so you borrow.

The Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union has long championed the cause of a minimum R12500 a month for its members. But it has been evasive about when it expects this to happen and how it would be structured.

Amcu president Joseph Mathunjwa conceded last month that the minimum salary demanded could be phased in over several years. But even then, said the platinum companies, it would be unaffordable. In the meantime, the strike has dragged on.

At the long weekend, Lonmin, Anglo Platinum and Impala Platinum tabled an offer that would get the lowest-paid employees to at least R12500 a month by 2017. Yes, there is some clever structuring and a bit of marketing to this offer, but it is the highest yet. And the fact that R12500 features in the proposal could help Mathunjwa and Amcu save face.

If no deal is reached, many of the platinum mines around Rustenburg will probably be sold. The mining companies have hinted as much. Would the new owners pay the handsome wages demanded? Most likely not.

If Amcu signs a deal this week it would have, by some definition, succeeded. Its members will earn more but - after three lost months - they will certainly be poorer.