Heat waves the new normal

01 February 2016 - 02:19 By Tanya Farber

As another heat wave sets in climatologists have warned that record-breaking temperatures are a foretaste of the new normal. Climate change expert Bob Scholes, of Wits University, said the increase in temperatures would be "over and above el-Niño events"."High temperatures will persist into the middle of the century regardless of what we do. This is now hard-wired into our future."He said the 11 deaths attributed to the heat wave in North West were probably an underestimate."The elderly and the very young face a higher risk of death during a heat wave."Crop failure was expected to become more frequent."If the crop is flowering and temperatures climb above 35C, there will be no pollination and no seeds, regardless of rainfall."Mnikeli Ndabambi of the SA Weather Service said that between January 3 and 8, 30 weather stations recorded their highest temperatures since 1904 - between 45C and 49C. The lowest rainfall, 200mm, fell last year, far short of the 600mm average.Dr Chris Jack, a researcher at the Climate Systems Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town, said some cities were already facing significant risks related to water and power supply, and waste management. Climate change "has the potential to amplify these risks in the future".Scholes said better preparation would mean "water supply systems with increased storage capacity and no damage, farmers who are able to change their crop types and planting times, better food distribution and storage systems, and housing that's built to be far more resilient to extreme weather conditions".UCT's Dr Gina Ziervogel, an expert in adaption to climate change, said this could happen through technical or "socio-institutional" measures."Municipalities have to do both," she said, adding that the "silo structure" of separate departments for water, agriculture and the environment made it challenging, since adaptation required an "integrated approach".She said Cape Town had seen some positive interventions, such as permeable paving (which increases infiltration instead of sending water out to sea) and stormwater pipes with increased diameter."Also, working with citizens on early warning systems is a must. If people know when a heat wave is coming, they will know how to respond."..

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