Inflation hits the ceiling

18 February 2016 - 02:26 By AFP, Bloomberg, BDLive, Reuters

The inflation rate jumped to 6.2% last month, breaking through the top end of the Reserve Bank's target range. A sharp fall in the rand and the worst drought in a century pushed food prices higher, taking the consumer price index up from December's annual rate of 5.2% and through the 6% target ceiling set by the bank.The rate of increase was the fastest in 17 months, according to the Statistics SA figures released yesterday.The World Bank and the IMF predict economic growth will drop to less than 1% this year.Analysts said the rise in the inflation rate put pressure on the central bank to increase interest rates further after it raised its benchmark repurchase rate by an aggressive 50 basis points to 6.75% last month."We believe the bank will revert to the usual 25 basis points rate hikes in each of the following three meetings," Nedbank's economic unit said."Our forecast is for inflation to end the year at around 7.3%."Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages surged to 6.9% last month from 5.9% the previous month, according to the statistics office.Transportation prices rose 5.5% compared with 1.9% in December, driven by higher petrol costs.Core inflation, which excludes food, non-alcoholic beverages, petrol and electricity costs, quickened to 5.6% last month, from 5.2% the previous month. That's the highest rate since May.Retail sales increased 4.1% compared with a year earlier. They rose 3.8% in November, said Statistics SA. The 4.1% was the quickest pace of acceleration since January 2014.The World Bank said that South Africa was at risk of slipping into recession this year while growth should recover slightly in 2017 as the weaker rand helps to boost exports. ..

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