Bigger deficit will give Bank a shove on rates

15 June 2016 - 09:41 By Reuters, BDLive

The Reserve Bank is likely to raise interest rates at its first opportunity - partly thanks to South Africa's current account deficit widening alarmingly in the first quarter of 2016.The wider deficit, a sharp contraction in growth and rand weakness led analysts to predict yesterday that the bank would push up rates after a pause at its last policy meeting last month.The rand is down nearly 25% against the US dollar since the second quarter of last year, and fell more than 1% after the data was released yesterday.The widening deficit follows exports of platinum and coal slumping as global commodities prices tumble, said the Reserve Bank.The deficit widened to 5% of GDP in the first quarter from a revised shortfall of 4.6% in the final quarter of 2015. Economists expected a 4.25% gap for the first quarter."We expect that this will force the Reserve Bank to hike its key interest rate," analysts at research house Capital Economics said.More statistics in the quarterly bulletin released threw a gloomy light on the economy.Spending shrank in the first quarter of this year, in line with contraction and slowing demand.Gross domestic expenditure declined at an annual rate of 1.3% after increasing by 1.9% in the fourth quarter of last year."It was not a particularly good quarter as far as final consumption expenditure (is concerned)," the Bank's head of reviews and statistics, Johan van den Heever, saidSouth Africa's household spending contracted by 1.3% in the first quarter after expanding 2.1% in the previous quarter.Household debt-service costs increased marginally, in line with rising interest rates.Growth in government spending slowed to 1% from 2.6% in the fourth quarter of last year.Capital inflows shrank from R53.5-billion in the fourth quarter of 2015 to only R27.6-billion in the first quarter of this year.Though uncertainty over the timing of further interest-rate increases in the US played a role in the slower pace of capital inflows, "the risk-averseness among international investors was raised by the lacklustre domestic economic growth and political uncertainty", the Bank said.Portfolio investment such as purchases of local stocks recorded capital inflows in the first quarter of 2016 while direct investment registered capital outflows.On a brighter note, the weak rand and less stringent visa requirements had boosted the tourism sector, said the Bank.The bulletin reported "a firm increase" of about 9% in gross travel receipts in the first quarter...

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