Tory landslide on cards

20 April 2017 - 09:10 By BEN RILEY-SMITH
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Analysis by Britain's leading pollster suggests the Conservative Party could win a 100-seat majority in parliament at the snap election called for June 8.

If current opinion polling is replicated at the ballot box, the Tories will win 375 seats - almost double the 189 the Labour Party would win.

Such a result would vindicate Prime Minister Theresa May's decision to go for an early vote - with the Tory working majority soaring from the current 17 to 100, according to the projection.

But John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who conducted the analysis, said the Conservative lead would probably be reduced during the election campaign. He said Labour's collapse under Jeremy Corbyn helped explain the prevailing poll results.

Labour's marginal seats in the West Midlands, on the edge of northern cities and in the London suburbs are believed to be the most likely to fall to the Tories.

Conservative Party leaders have said they are planning a "decapitation strategy" targeting Labour heartland seats in the North.

This would mirror the ruthless campaign against the Liberal Democrats in the 2015 election, in which the Tories took several seats from their then-coalition partners. A recent test of polls put the Conservatives on 43% of the vote and Labour on 27% - a Tory lead of 16 points. Ukip and the Lib Dems were both on 10%. If those numbers are mirrored in the election and the swing is equal across the UK, the Tory majority would rise to about 100 seats.

"While Mrs May goes into the election with a huge lead over Labour, she is not guaranteed the overwhelming majority she evidently hopes for," Curtice said.

"The SNP remains dominant in Scotland and is likely to retain most of its 56 seats."

- The Daily Telegraph

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