Trevor's depressing manual

Justice Malala: Our country has achieved much against great odds. That a country so divided in 1994 could be the peaceful democracy it is only 17 years later is testament to this.

That today we celebrate, with a sense of pride, an incredible World Cup staged in 2010 is yet another.

Do not be fooled, though. Our country is still in a lot of trouble. While we hang onto Julius Malema's every word and worry about what he says, our country faces massive problems.

The National Planning Commission, led by Trevor Manuel, last week released an overview of South Africa in which it outlines in stark terms - and incredible candour - what really faces us. It is a depressing read, but it is also inspirational: it points us to exactly where the problems are without the clutter of ideology and partisan political bickering.

Every South African should read it and engage with it. For the first time in 17 years, there is a firm, clear and simply written basis for such engagement.

Our country is in trouble. If you do not believe it, here is a passage from the overview's chapter on education that should convince you:

"Efforts to raise the quality of education for poor children have largely failed. Apart from a small minority of black children who attend formerly white schools, and a small minority of schools performing well in largely black areas, the quality of public education remains poor.

"Literacy and numeracy test scores are low by African and global standards, despite the fact that [the] government spends about 6% of GDP on education and South Africa's teachers are among the highest paid in the world (in purchasing-power parity).

"Learners in historically white schools perform better, and their scores improve with successive years of schooling. In contrast, in the majority of schools with black learners, the learner scores start off lower, and show relatively little improvement between grades three and five.

"[Though] there have been some improvements, as measured by the pass rate of those who sat the 2010 matriculation exam, which was 67.8%, this hides the fact that only 15% achieved an average mark of 40% or more. This means that roughly 7% of the cohort of children born between 1990 and 1994 achieved this standard."

There is much more. The opening chapter to the health section makes you feel sick:

"Total deaths in South Africa have increased sharply, with the numbers approximately doubling in 10 years up to 2008. The rise in total deaths, low life expectancy and high infant mortality are all evidence of a health system in distress. The overall picture is one of a country going through a devastating set of epidemics - the increase in deaths is as large as the number of deaths at the baseline just 10 years earlier."

What this says is that we are regressing. We need surgery.

On corruption, the document says: "According to the Special Investigating Unit, it is estimated that 20%-25% of state procurement expenditure, amounting to roughly R30-billion a year, is wasted through over-payment or corruption."

That is money that could have gone to the poor. The document is lucid and convincing on our greatest challenge: unemployment.

This challenge, as former president Thabo Mbeki said, could be the reason for our miracle country finally imploding.

Then there is our lacklustre economic performance, our inadequate infrastructure, a public service that has forgotten who it is supposed to serve and, of course, the divisions across racial and class lines. It looks bad.

The document concludes: "The indicators most often associated with decline include rising corruption, weakening of state and civil society institutions, poor economic management, skills and capital flight, politics dominated by short- termism, ethnicity or factionalism, and lack of maintenance of infrastructure and standards of service.

"Elements of these indicators are already visible in South Africa, though their strength and prevalence is uneven and differs from sector to sector. If they become more prevalent, the country's progress could be stalled, its gains reversed and even the foundational aspects of democracy unravelled."

Countries die when people stop caring about their own future, when they stop engaging. Let's not become a failed state. Write to Manuel and give him an earful.

Go to www.npconline.co.za .

It's your country.