South African selectors omitted crucial player for T20 World Cup: Statistician

08 March 2016 - 19:11 By TMG Digital

When the Proteas try to win this year’s World T20 in India this month‚ they will be missing a key player - allrounder Albie Morkel. That’s according to a Canadian statistician who has picked the optimal line-up for the South African team. Twenty20 is the shortest form of cricket and from today‚ March 8‚ sixteen teams will compete in India for the World Cup title. The Proteas have never won the World T20 but anything less than a place in the final will be considered a failure for the Faf du Plessis-led side.The selectors missed a trick‚ though‚ says Professor Tim Swartz from Simon Fraser University in British Columbia‚ who has devised a data-heavy strategy to optimise international team line-ups. Using a match simulator‚ he uses batting and bowling probabilities to estimate the best outcomeAlbie Morkel‚ who the professor refers to by his initials JA (Johannes Albertus)‚ should be better utilised by South African selectors‚ the professor told ResearchGate.net.“He would help South Africa greatly... Not only would we advise that Morkel play‚ but we would have him bat much earlier in the line-up than where he is typically used. The reason for this is because getting a batsman is out is less important in Twenty20 than in the other forms of cricket (One-Day International and Test matches). Therefore‚ batsmen that score runs at a high rate should be given more opportunity to bat.”Morkel took an impressive three wickets for 12 runs for the South African national team against India in October last year. Before that‚ Morkel’s most recent outing for SA was also against India - the 2014 World T20 semifinal in Dhaka. He missed SA’s next 11 matches in the format before David Wiese’s loss due to a broken hand was Morkel’s gain. Morkel also produced strong performances in the domestic T20 competition‚ the Ram Slam‚ late last year.While India are tipped as favourites for this year’s T20 World Cup‚ the professor reckons South Africa’s optimal line-up of fast bowlers are better.His South African optimal line-up has three fast bowlers (Albie’s brother Morne Morkel‚ Lonwabo Tsotsobe – now under investigation as part of a Ram Slam match-fixing probe - and Dale Steyn) compared to India's one fast bowler.“This implies that the South African fast bowlers are more effective than their Indian counterparts. And‚ this is again suggestive that teams should consider the best players available for team selection‚ and not be tied to a tradition of having an even mix of fast and spin bowlers‚” the research report states.A noticeable discrepancy between the optimal line-up and the 2014 actual line-up is that wicketkeeper-batsman Quinton de Kock was not selected to the optimal line-up‚ despite being the opening batsman in 2014. “We note that De Kock did not play all that well in the World Cup scoring only 64 runs in five innings.”Also‚ the optimal line-up places more value on A.B. de Villiers as he is selected as an opener compared to No 5 in the 2014 line-up.The professor’s optimal line-up for the Proteas: 1 H Amla 2 AB de Villiers (also as wicketkeeper) 3 JP Duminy 4 F du Plessis 5 F Behardien 6 D Miller 7 JA (Albie) Morkel 8 M Morkel 9 LL Tsotsobe 10. I Tahir 11. D Steyn. Not Selected: Q de Kock‚ BE Hendricks‚ WD Parnell‚ AM Phangiso.South Africa’s actual T20 squad Faf du Plessis (captain)‚ Kyle Abbott‚ Hashim Amla‚ Farhaan Behardien‚ Quinton de Kock‚ AB de Villiers‚ JP Duminy‚ Imran Tahir‚ David Miller‚ Chris Morris‚ Aaron Phangiso‚ Kagiso Rabada‚ Rilee Rossouw‚ Dale Steyn‚ David Wiese.SAWorld T20 fixtures: March 18: SA v England‚ Mumbai March 20: SA v Qualifier‚ Mumbai March 25: SA v West Indies‚ Nagpur March 28: SA v Sri Lanka‚ Delhi March 30: 1st semi-final‚ Delhi March 31: 2nd semi-final‚ Mumbai April 3: Final‚ Kolkata.You can read the full document on Research Gate.eff..

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