Sub two-hour marathon still a long way off

When Dennis Kimetto swept through the Brandenburg Gate on route to yet another new marathon world record in Berlin last week, he moved the limits of human physiology one step closer to the magical two-hour barrier.

The race to two hours is reminiscent of the last great milestone in the sport, the sub four-minute mile, which captured the imagination of the world in the 1950s.

Coinciding with the race to reach the summit of Mount Everest (the four-minute mile proved more challenging, falling in 1954, one year after Everest was conquered), and the end of World War 2, a race between England's Roger Bannister and Australia's John Landy captured attention.

It was Bannister who first proved wrong the notion that the four-minute mile was a brick wall.

That the current mile world record is fully 17 seconds faster than Bannister stands as a monument to the folly of predicting the limits of human endeavour!

The sub two-hour marathon now stands as the next "brick wall". At 2:02:57, the current world record is actually a considerable distance from that barrier so, to suggest that it is imminent, is a little premature.

At the very limit of human physiology, the 177 remaining seconds are formidable.

Consider, for instance, that the last five world records have improved by an average of 24 seconds (Kimetto took 26 seconds off the old time last week).

Even at the same rate, it will take another eight records to get below two hours. Now, add the fact that the last six world records have come in Berlin over 11 years, and you can appreciate that records don't happen quite as frequently as we've been "spoiled" into thinking.

The most basic prediction is that we'll continue seeing a world record once every two years, so that 16 years from now, we'll celebrate that 1:59 performance.

Of course, the reality is far more complex. Is that constant improvement likely to continue? Some believe so, others don't. I fall into the latter group, for a few reasons.

First, one has to understand what is driving the current era. Until about 1990, East African countries did not participate widely in marathons. Once they began, they soon dominated.

But it was only from about 2000 that this dominance became complete. Driven by the huge financial incentives, more athletes looked to the marathon as a means to secure a prosperous life.

In Kenya, where a typical annual salary is less than R10000, the R2-million or more on offer for winning a major marathon is enormously enticing. That has drawn East Africa's already deep talent pool to the roads. It is, however, limited - at some point, the expansion of "viable record-breakers" will subside, and so will the improvement.

Second, in terms of continued world record setting, one must appreciate that, in order to run faster than any human in history, all factors, ranging from those that can be controlled, such as training and physical condition, to those that cannot (the weather), must be absolutely perfect. For every successful world record attempt, there are perhaps 10 failures.

As the marathon record falls ever closer to two hours, the premium on "perfection" will become ever greater. Slightly too hot, too windy, and the record is off the table.

For that reason, sub-two hours is perhaps not as imminent as many want to believe. Whether it will ever happen is folly to predict. I suspect it will, but even the discussion will only be relevant 30 years from now. One thing I can guarantee is that, if or when it happens, it will be an East African who does it.

Carried by their exceptionally long legs and tendons, which make them ultra-efficient for distance running, plus their long history of living at altitude, and advantages in how they regulate brain oxygen delivery (some research we are currently conducting on elite Kenyans), and they are the perfect population and the marathon is the perfect event. We can only marvel at, and enjoy, their pursuits.