SA could slip on Greece

02 July 2015 - 02:16 By Graeme Hosken

Economists yesterday warned that the fallout from the Greek debt crisis was likely to hurt South Africa. Investors, they said, were expected to steer clear of South Africa and other emerging markets and withhold desperately needed funds.The warnings were given a day after Greece defaulted on its R20-billion debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund.South Africa's head of mission to the EU yesterday revealed in a series of tweets the extent of this country's economic ties to Greece.Mxolisi Nkosi said direct and indirect investment by Greece in South Africa exceeded R8-billion and had led to the creation of more than 100000 jobs.These investments are in financial services, shipping, foodstuffs, manufacturing and commerce.He told The Times that the Greek crisis would probably lead to a big decline in two-way trade, investment and development assistance."With the crisis having reached its apogee, Greece will no longer be able to fulfil its assistance commitments," Nkosi said.Jannie Rossouw, head of the Wits University School of Economics, said that if Greece pulled out of the EU it would make investors jittery about the prospects of emerging markets "which will be bad for South Africa"."This country will become a less attractive investment destination, with less capital flowing in, with the rand possibly depreciating further and inflation increasing."But Rossouw said the effects on South Africa of a Greek withdrawal from the eurozone, or from the EU, would not be permanent."They will last until it is clear where Greece is heading after a pullout," he said.Economist Daniel Silke said the danger of Greece quitting the EU was that it would weaken the eurozone."The EU is one of South Africa's biggest trading partners and a weakening in the eurozone would have an adverse effect on investment sentiment."The JSE stock exchange will be particularly volatile, with investors looking for safe-haven options in preference to the more risky developing markets."Silke also said that the volatility would be short-lived and a run on the JSE was most unlikely."Once the shock is over, the JSE will stabilise quickly."Silke said all indications were that Greece would try to hammer out a last-minute deal with the EU...

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