Greece hanging by a thread

06 July 2015 - 02:09 By Bloomberg

The European Central Bank may choose to buy time for politicians to discuss the referendum that has left Greece's finances hanging by a thread. Though the governing council is due to decide today on whether to keep supporting the country's crippled lenders, it will probably be reluctant to pre-empt a planned meeting of euro-area leaders. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande spoke late yesterday and EU President Donald Tusk called a euro-area summit for tomorrow.A popular vote to reject the terms of an EU-led bailout has left Greece on the verge of running out of money, trapping the ECB between the moral hazard of funding a system close to bankruptcy and the dramatic consequences of shutting it off.Given the risk of splintering the euro, ECB President Mario Draghi and his colleagues have so far signalled they will take their lead from elected representatives."It is clear that the ECB has no appetite to front-run the political process," Michala Marcussen, global head of economics at Societe Generale SA in London, said yesterday."As long as discussions are ongoing between the Greek administration and the euro area, we consider it unlikely that the ECB will fully cut the emergency liquidity assistance and Greek banks' access to ECB liquidity facilities."An ECB spokesman declined to comment on the governing council's plans. Draghi will hold a call this morning with Tusk, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloe.Merkel and Hollande, who meet this afternoon in Paris, said the decision of the Greek people must be respected.While political talks between Greece and its creditors halted after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced the referendum more than a week ago, Tsipras said following the vote that his country would return to the negotiating table today. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis last week said the nation's banks, shut and under capital controls for the past week, would open tomorrow.As politicians take the time to settle into their negotiating positions, the ECB is watching the financial-stability risks. The euro fell more than 1% to below $1.10 when trading resumed after the weekend break.The ECB claims it has the policy tools available, and the capacity to develop new ones, to tackle financial turbulence in the currency bloc and elsewhere.As well as potential adjustments to its established asset-purchase programmes, the ECB has international currency swap lines in place and has made backstops available for non-euro countries in eastern Europe."In the current circumstances of great uncertainty in Europe and the world, the ECB has been clear that if we need to do more we will do more," executive board member Benoit Coeure said yesterday."Our will to act in this matter should not be doubted," Coeure said.The extent to which the will to do more extends to Greece is what will dominate the governing council's discussions today. Shut off from international markets and ruled out of the ECB's bond-buying programmes, Greek banks have for the past five months relied on emergency liquidity assistance from their own central bank, with the ECB's approval. Now that aid is also close to running out.Unless the €88.6-billion- ceiling on ELA is increased, lenders may have to restrict cash withdrawals further. Yet, with no bailout deal on the table that could rescue Greece's finances, ECB policy makers cannot ignore their duty to protect the eurosystem."Without the prospects for such a deal soon, the ECB has no basis to send more euros to Athens when it discusses further ELA to Greek banks on Monday," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London. "Greece needs more euros urgently.Without a deal, its sovereign and its banking system would soon be insolvent."For the governing council, the urgency is intensified by another looming deadline. On July 20, Greece is due to pay €,3.5-billion back to the ECB as bonds bought under an earlier crisis rescue mature. ..

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