Recession is the trader's Everest

14 October 2015 - 02:03 By David Shapiro

At a recent investor conference in London, I was privileged to attend an address by the legendary explorer Sir Ranulph Fiennes, who is the holder of several endurance records. Among his exploits he has circumnavigated the earth longitudinally, crossed the Antarctic on foot, climbed Mount Everest at the age of 65, and, shortly after undergoing a double bypass operation, ran seven marathons, on seven continents in seven days.Sir Ranulph comes from a noble family. Born a few months after his father, a lieutenant-colonel in the British army, died from war wounds in November 1943, he inherited his father's baronetcy. But, like a true aristocrat, he evaded any reference to his advantaged upbringing, delivering a witty, self-deprecating talk that topped the very best I have heard from two other public schoolboys, Rowan Atkinson and John Cleese.He spent the first 12 years of his life in the Cape, where he admitted his education was so poor that he was severely compromised when he returned to Britain. Moved from one school to another in a quest to improve his grades, he failed to obtain admission to the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, though he did learn to box and climb drainpipes at Eton.He joined the British forces and earned his commission the hard way, as a counter-insurgent fighter attached to the army of the Sultanate of Oman. His career path in the military was seriously hampered by his lack of formal education and he had no alternative but to turn to a career in adventure.Although the talk was intended to entertain, there was a metaphorical link between the uncertainty and dangers that Sir Ranulph faced on his journeys and the risks and threats still confronting markets eight years after the global financial crisis.When Federal Reserve governor Ben Bernanke assembled the world's leading central bankers ahead of the launch of his quantitative easing programme, he explained the idea was to tackle a collapse in trade and a fall in GDP that was similar to the first 18 months of the Great Depression by forcing investors out of bonds into risky assets. He wanted other economies to replicate the strategy. This was all new stuff. No one had ever tried it before.Not all nations adopted the policy with equal enthusiasm. Still Bernanke's plan managed to avoid a global collapse and further economic contraction. But as last week's IMF forecasts underscored, consumer and corporate confidence remains low and the world economy is running well below its potential.It's clear that the marginal utility of a further dose of QE, either in the US or wherever, will lessen with each new attempt. With monetary policy exhausted, it's now up to governments to initiate bold political and commercial reforms, introduce business incentives and embark on spending programmes that will fire up economic activity. As Sir Ranulph advised his audience: Don't linger too long in a warm hut when your schedule is tight and the weather may change. Press on, even if conditions are risky, to avoid delay causing even greater hazards tomorrow...

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