The South African economy will pick up next year as commodity prices rise and a historic drought eases, according to the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll, but it is still short of the necessary investor confidence to grow faster.
The poll, taken in the past three days and released yesterday, predicted the economy for Africa's most developed nation would expand 1.1% next year from 0.4% this year, the same consensus forecast made last month.
The latest gross domestic product data for the third quarter showed the economy expanded by only 0.2% compared with a revised 3.5% in the second quarter.
Jeffrey Schultz, economist at BNP Paribas, wrote in a note that he expected growth to gain speed next year, but the trends in gross domestic fixed investment remain concerning.
This type of investment is normally capital spending. The private sector makes up nearly two-thirds of the gross domestic fixed investment contribution to GDP.
"A lack of policy coherence and an increasingly uncertain political environment continue to weigh on both the willingness and ability of domestic corporates to invest meaningfully in the economy," Schultz said.
The Johannesburg all-share stock market index has climbed over 90% since the 2008/09 recession, but companies have been reluctant to invest even when their balance sheets are healthy.
But lacklustre growth and unsettling political noise has worried the three major ratings agencies this year.
Still, Schultz expects growth to accelerate, boosted mainly by improvements in agriculture, higher commodity prices and lower inflation.
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