Zexit? Not so fast, Mzansi

Many South Africans' dream of an early Zexit has been dashed, commentators say.

President Jacob Zuma yesterday firmly cemented his hold on the ANC and national presidencies by calling in a stack of IOUs.

Days of intense - and surprising - criticism of Zuma by three of the ANC's top-six leaders over his cabinet reshuffle and firing of former finance minister Pravin Gordhan and his deputy, Mcebisi Jonas, have been silenced.

Now the success of a planned motion of no confidence, which many believed would be supported by a good few ANC MPs, is even more doubtful. The debate on the motion is scheduled for April 18.

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The evaporation of dissent has resulted in a sudden about-turn by the ANC integrity commission, which on Monday called for Zuma's resignation.

ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, a vocal critic of the Zuma reshuffle, yesterday became a vocal proponent of a "united" ANC.

Mantashe spoke to the media at Luthuli House, the ANC's head office, in Johannesburg, after a meeting of the party's national working committee earlier this week. His announcement that the public disagreement between party bosses about the reshuffle was now to be seen as a mistake was soon followed by a weakening of the bond market and the rand losing 1.29% against the dollar.

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Zuma, say political analysts, has succeeded in rallying the national working committee in his support.

Alex van den Heever, of the Wits School of Governance, said South Africans should not look to the ANC for an early Zexit.

ALON SKUY
A MISTAKE ANYONE COULD MAKE: ANC spokesman Zizi Kodwa listens to secretary-general Gwede Mantashe at Luthuli House, Johannesburg, about notes 'erroneously' sent to the media. Picture: ALON SKUY

"It now depends on how active South Africa's larger society is. The ANC and the government will need to be made to move by society, which can no longer be passive.

"Civil society must now exercise its rights. People need to reassert themselves in the way that led to democracy in 1994.

"Society must stand up, especially to protect the electoral process, which faces a very real threat."

Political commentator Moeletsi Mbeki said Zuma was clever.

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"This [shoring up of support] has been years in the making. It has come from the ANC's Polokwane elective conference. The problem is that no one has really looked at what's happening in the ANC, and especially in its electorate.

"The reality is that Zuma has complete control of the ANC."

He said in Polokwane, Zuma came to power through the support of the SA Communist Party, the unions, the ANC Women's League and the ANC Youth League.

"Soon after he was elected, those who brought him to power started to disagree with his policies. All he did, like he has done now, is silence those critics, especially the leaders.

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"His strategy was to outmanoeuvre and demobilise those who put him in power. When the Mangaung elective conference came he pushed people into positions. It's these people who are now answerable to him."

He said those purged in the cabinet reshuffle were the remnants of those Zuma used to take out his critics after Polokwane.

"Now in the national working committee Zuma has supporters who are answerable to him. He is in full control of the ANC on the way to its next elective conference and will ensure his supporters are elected."

Commenting on the backtracking of Zuma's critics in the top six (Mantashe, deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa and treasurer Zweli Mkhize), Mbeki said they had no constituency from which to operate.

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"Zuma, a seasoned politician, has virtually all the constituencies in his pocket. The unions have been left virtually worthless, with the provincial branches which disagree with him gutted.

Political analyst Keith Gottschalk said Zuma had won so far. "How long he will carry on winning, who knows. One definitely sees every outcry against him getting louder, which didn't happen previously.

"Zuma has not silenced his critics but has outvoted, outflanked and outmanoeuvred them, especially through bringing the ANC provincial chairmen into the national working committee meeting, so increasing his vote in the committee."

Speaking at a memorial service for Rivonia trialist Ahmed Kathrada in Pretoria last night, Gordhan did not comment directly on the developments unfolding within the ANC since his sacking.

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Instead, he criticised Social Development Minister Bathabile Dlamini for the manner in which she brought anxiety to millions of social grants recipients.

"One must have the humility, sensibility ... to say that a mistake was made," said Gordhan.

In a veiled attack on Water and Sanitation Minister Nomvula Mokonyane, Gordhan said there was a trend of misleading the poor.

"There is a new phenomenon that the rand will fall and we will pick it up. That is misleading the poor," he said.

If the rand fell, he said, it would have devastating consequences for pension funds, the oil price and food prices. "That is the truth that should be told."

- Additional reporting by Ernest Mabuza