Poor Lizzie may have to sell a castle

10 September 2014 - 02:04 By David Shapiro
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DAVID SHAPIRO: Deputy chairman of Sasfin Securities
DAVID SHAPIRO: Deputy chairman of Sasfin Securities
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In a week in which US president Barack Obama flew into Estonia to reassure the Baltic states about Nato's backing against possible moves by Russian President Vladimir Putin to recover territory lost in the breakup of the Soviet Union 25 years ago,

and in which a second hostage journalist was beheaded by Islamic State radicals in Iraq, Wall Street closed on Friday at record levels, UK stock markets traded at 14-year peaks and the JSE ended within touching distance of its all-time high, tell-tale signs that the 2009 bull market still has the legs to run harder.

It's hard to believe market participants simply swept aside Putin's support for a disparate band of pro-Russian separatists in the Ukraine in an obvious, but undeclared, plan to control the state's eastern region. While certain country heads, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, challenged Putin's attempts to shift Europe's borders without confrontation, other local leaders have lacked the courage to stand up to his aggression, fearing the introduction of wide-reaching sanctions against Russia would ultimately endanger trade in an already brittle regional economy.

The worry that markets seem to be ignoring is the probability that Putin's nationalistic ambitions will not end at the Ukrainian border; his eventual objective undoubtedly being the extension of his power to any sovereignty with a pro-Russian minority. Yet, even the gold price - a notable fear indicator - has declined, strengthening traders' views that Putin's burning adventurism will eventually be checked.

The market's positive incline may be acknowledgement that "do-nothing" European policymakers have finally woken up to the need to put measures in place that could finally lift growth.

Last Thursday, Mario Draghi, the ECB president, surprised markets by cutting interest rates, further reducing the bank's negative deposit rate and announcing an asset-backed repurchase programme designed to pump liquidity into the financial system. Speculation is that the current measures are a prelude to a more potent attempt to alter, positively, the path of the euro region's economy; humble admission, too, that European authorities may have got it wrong by not following the more successful US and UK quantitative easing policies.

Turning to the US, the 142000 increase in jobs in August was well below forecasts, but while analysts were initially disappointed, the construction and manufacturing data reveal conditions in America's labour markets are improving. Economic numbers are encouraging and give investors valid reasons to feel confident about the stock market's run.

While things may be looking up abroad, back home concerns are mounting. Gold is not the only commodity losing ground. Iron ore prices have slumped more than 50% over the past year and continue to deteriorate. While BHP Billiton's management reduced costs in its Australian mines, South African producers face increased overheads from higher energy bills, escalating wage expenses and the inflationary impact on other consumables.

The story that captured my imagination last week is the possibility that when, in a fortnight's time, Scots go to the polls to decide on their 300-year union with England, the majority might back independence. Investors and bankers dismissed the prospect of devolution as remote, but support for the split is gathering pace, leaving financial institutions having to consider contingency plans for separating operations and dealing with capital flight and relocation of staff.

Spare a thought for Queen Elizabeth, who might be forced to sell Balmoral Castle, a royal family residency since 1852.

My bets are that gaming boss Stanley Adelson's arm could be twisted to convert the castle into the Balmoral Sands, or the Scottish Chamber of Commerce could encourage China's richest man, Alibaba's Jack Ma, to set up a tech hub in Aberdeenshire.

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