The breakdown of the state, deadly violence and forced migration in Sudan is a critical lesson for South Africa, which supported that country's former dictator, Omar al-Bashir. Supporting dictatorships rather than backing democratic forces will over time lead to escalating conflict as is happening in Sudan now.
In Sudan, close to a million people have been displaced within the country during the new cycle of violence. Before this, almost 4-million people had been internally displaced by ongoing violence. Many Sudanese have already been affected by multiple crises, with basic public services and infrastructure having collapsed.
In the latest conflict combatants, and looters in their wake, have deliberately destroyed physical and cultural infrastructure in scorched-earth campaigns. Sudan's Omdurman Ahlia University's archives, precious manuscripts and academic theses were set on fire. The university is known as “Liberated Lands” for its encouragement of independent thought throughout previous autocratic regimes and had for years been under pressure from the country’s autocratic rulers. Early analyses show the fire may have been a deliberate act.
One of the key reasons for the postcolonial failure of many African countries is that ruling regimes and leaders often squash independent thought, expression and expertise which could offer more inclusive, peaceful and imaginative local development paths. Such behaviour accelerates many of these countries’ declines into systemic corruption, violence and eventually failed states or country break-ups. Ruling regimes in Sudan have, sadly, been no different.
By supporting autocratic governments in Africa, South Africa bolsters the impunity of governing parties and rulers, which eventually leads to Sudan-like break-ups, with the associated violence, state collapse and forced migration. State collapse because of lack of democracy, corruption and tribalism spill over into neighbouring countries, causing chaos, disruption and insecurity there too.
By supporting autocratic governments in Africa, South Africa bolsters the impunity of governing parties and rulers, which eventually leads to Sudan-like break-ups with the associated violence, state collapse and forced migration.
The long-standing impunity of Sudanese leaders has allowed military leaders who propped up al-Bashir to continue to hold on to power, unleashing the latest cycle of terror, infrastructure destruction and state collapse. In 2015 South Africa refused to arrest then-president al-Bashir when he was in the country. Al-Bashir had been sought by the International Criminal Court for alleged genocide and war crimes in Darfur.
Al-Bashir ruled with the support of the army, though he was eventually toppled by a popular uprising in 2019. However, the army and the generals who supported him survived and remained firmly in power, initially governing uncomfortably with a democratic transitional government before army leaders, led by Gen Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan, head of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), toppled the democratic government in October 2021, when the democratic government demanded, correctly, that the army cede state power to civilians.
After the al-Burhan army coup of October 2021, the coup leaders are now fighting among themselves — each group supported by foreign backers — for control of the country’s resources. The armed conflict is waged between warring generals Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan, head of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and Mohammed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, leading the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The army leaders have up to now fiercely blocked the handing over of al-Bashir to the ICC for prosecution. South Africa and the AU have done little to put pressure on the Sudanese generals to deliver al-Bashir to justice. Neither have they done much to hold accountable the army leaders — who are as complicit as al-Bashir in human rights abuses, violence, and corruption during al-Bashir’s reign — which has led to a culture of impunity. This has sparked the latest round of deadly violence.
Al-Bashir and many of the generals who supported him during his reign have been accused of war crimes and other violations starting with the Darfur conflict 20 years ago. On April 25 2003, the opposition Sudan Liberation Movement attacked Sudanese army units at the al-Fashir airport in north Darfur, igniting the Darfur conflict. Millions have been displaced since, hundreds of thousands killed and billions in infrastructure has been destroyed in the Darfur war between the Sudanese military and rebel forces.
Since the start of the 2003 Darfur conflict, civil organisations, human rights activists and the media have documented evidence of crimes against humanity, including killings of civilians, rape of women and girls, forced removal of civilians, the use of chemical weapons and the destruction of property.
As with al-Bashir and his violent regime in Sudan, the ANC government has supported Zanu-PF in Zimbabwe rather than opposition parties, civil society organisations and the media, which has encouraged the government to continue with its corruption, incompetence and abuse of human rights.
The UN Security Council in 2005 referred al-Bashir’s and his army’s crimes to the ICC for prosecution — and in 2009 the ICC issued arrest warrants for al-Bashir, three senior government allies and three leaders of armed opposition groups, for war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity. In April 2022, Ali Kosheib, a leader of the Janjaweed militia, started his trial at the ICC. However, al-Bashir’s military allies have refused to hand him — and other members of his regime, many still in powerful positions — over to the ICC.
This week Sudan’s warring generals al-Burhan, of the Sudanese Armed Forces, and Dagalo, of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, agreed to a weeklong ceasefire brokered by Saudi Arabia and the US. The temporary peace in the five-week Sudanese conflict will be monitored by international groups and will allow for humanitarian aid and support for victims of the conflict.
As with al-Bashir and his violent regime in Sudan, the ANC government has supported Zanu-PF in Zimbabwe, rather than opposition parties, civil society organisations and the media, which has encouraged the government to continue with its corruption, incompetence and abuse of human rights. Yet, unless the Zanu-PF government stops its impunity, Zimbabwe will plunge into Sudan-like violence and breakdown — and more Zimbabweans will be fleeing to South Africa. Zimbabwe is experiencing dire currency instability and runaway inflation, with more than 5.5-million facing starvation.
Another example is the SA government’s support for Frelimo in Mozambique, which has been governing equally appalling as Zanu-PF, often developing only areas where it has majority support, appointing only its cadres to the public service and enriching its leaders while ordinary citizens, including their loyal supporters, live in dire poverty. The backlash of this has been the emergence of a violent jihadist insurgency in northern Mozambique, in opposition to the central government, which left more than 1,000 death, a quarter-of-a-million people displaced and threating to break up the country.
Unless Zimbabwe, Mozambique and other African countries govern more inclusively, honestly and competently, the end game in these countries is likely to be Sudan-like collapse which will spill into South Africa and neighbouring countries. To prevent such predictable plunges into chaos in many more African countries, the ANC government — and the AU — have to support democratic forces, civil society and human rights, rather than propping up uncaring governments.
William Gumede is associate professor, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and author of Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times(Tafelberg)
