The attempt to charge at Moscow by a motley crew of mutineers led by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin should become a fillip for the African peace mission.
After a meeting between German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock and her South African counterpart, Naledi Pandor, Baerbock said the attempted mutiny “will not affect our intention of continuing to engage with both countries as has been agreed by the presidents who were part of the African peace mission”.
Earlier, Pandor had told the media that the African peace mission “was very modest in its ambitions because we understand that this (war between Russia and Ukraine) is a very complex situation. Our approach is to seek peace and to attempt to bring the parties to a negotiating table”.
Elsewhere, the mission was considered stillborn in that Russian leader Vladimir Putin was a warmonger intent to continue his country’s bombing of Ukraine, while Volodymyr Zelensky, buoyed by multibillion-dollar support from Nato countries, was unlikely to agree to a cessation at a time when it appears possible to stage a pushback against Russian forces. The two leaders, some said, were unlikely to agree with what African leaders put on the table.
Further, these African leaders had failed, in any case, to ensure sustained peace on the African continent. How then would they succeed in Europe? More so for this mission’s leader, Cyril Ramaphosa, whose country is smarting from a bruising international relations exercise involving US ambassador Reuben Brigety, who said the country supplied arms to Russia through Lady R, which docked at the naval base in Simon’s Town — an allegation vehemently denied by Pretoria.
The mutiny is an opportunity for Pretoria to change its view of Putin. This is a leader not just engaged in battles in Ukraine, he is fighting against sanctions, isolation and potential back-stabbing by some of his lieutenants.
When Pandor says she hopes the mutineers in Russia “will not affect” African leaders’ engagement with warring partners, she misses the bigger picture. You do not need Putin bereft of weakness to stage a chest-thumping, over-confident, resource-rich successful peace mission.
To bring it back home, the armed struggle against apartheid assumed a different significance against the government once sanctions had weakened the overlords. Put differently, the apartheid regime only agreed to talks with freedom fighters when they realised they were fighting on many fronts: in the bush, against sanctions and against international isolation.
Similarly, the mutiny is an opportunity for Pretoria to change its view of Putin. This is a leader not just engaged in battles in Ukraine, he is fighting against sanctions, isolation and potential back-stabbing by some of his lieutenants. The mutiny has successfully sent a message within Russia that it is possible to challenge the grandfather, as Putin is referred to, and possibly win. A seed, as it were, has been planted. Putin would be a fool to think that Prigozhin’s march to Moscow was a weekend show. He will certainly have to continue to look over his shoulders.
At one point, he will have to decide, as the apartheid government did, to drop one of the terrains of battle. When he gets to this critical decision-making point, he needs Ramaphosa and his fellow African leaders to be around to help him see the futility of his war, the devastating impact it has on the world and, hopefully, choose peace.
At this point, it would not matter to the world if African leaders ever succeeded in bringing about peace in their own continent. It would matter less which way South Africa voted when the world condemned the war. What will matter most would be the withdrawal of Russia from Ukraine and the necessary rebuilding of structures and people affected by the war.
So the historic period Russia has just entered is crucial for the African peace mission. As paranoia sets in around Moscow, as military chiefs answer difficult questions about the real strength of the Russian army, Pretoria must read the situation correctly.
Moscow has become vulnerable. It’s not just a case of the mutiny not affecting peace negotiations. It’s a case of the mutiny giving peace efforts a fresh impetus for success. Read the room correctly, Pandor.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.