It’s been a week since President Cyril Ramaphosa applauded the “exceptional” Census 2022 results, showing the country’s population had increased from 51.7-million in 2011 to more than 62-million in 2022.
Mainly governmental officials have hailed the results of the country’s crunching of numbers as an invaluable insight into the demographic and social landscape.
After all, the population count, which is conducted every decade — extended from five to 10 years because of a capacity constraint — is a crucial planning, monitoring and evaluation tool for governments.
They say the figures reflect a narrative of resilience, an uptick in educational levels, adoption of technology and the internet and a substantial improvement in providing clean water, electricity, sanitation and waste removal to the population.
Many South Africans, however, overwhelmed and fatigued by state capture and corruption resulting in ongoing water and electricity cuts and now facing a shortage of eggs and chicken due to an outbreak of the H7 bird flu, have decried the egg-ceptional results as a bad yolk.
Countless people say their voice has not been counted, backed up by civil organisations hugely concerned by the alarming double-digit 31% undercount.
In other words, a staggering one-third of the population were not counted.
To put this in perspective, the undercount rate in 2011 was 14.6%, and former statistician-general at the time said it was “concerningly high”.
But it seems current statistician-general Risenga Maluleke is not losing any sleep, saying there should be no concerns over the validity of the figures, as they had been adjusted in line with UN methods to compensate for the undercount.
A few have weighed in on the reasons one-third of the population were not counted.
Wits urban governance professor David Everatt believes the pandemic, July 2021 riots, lower trust in the government and polling fatigue could be reasons for the undercount level.
But civil society is not buying what Stats SA is selling. Already statistics around homelessness and foreign immigrants has been met with scepticism.
The National Homeless Network, for example, have expressed serious reservations about the reliability of the data presented.
While they commend Stats SA for its intention to take this population group seriously, they are “saddened that there was such a gulf between intention and delivery”.
And there is worry that policymakers will use unreliable figures to make crucial decisions.
The same sentiment has been expressed about foreign nationals.
By Ramaphosa’s own admission, the results of the 2022 census “informs the planning, budgeting and policymaking work of government”.
Instead of glossing over the harsh realities, the government should be honing in on the growth opportunities as we hurtle towards 2030 and the goals of the development plan.
And “policymaking that is not informed by accurate data can result in inefficiency in the allocation of resources, underestimation of the needs of citizens, poorly planned programmes and poor financial management”, he said.
Exactly, Mr President.
How then are you so bullish about the results or appear to be confident in government’s forecasting abilities to meet the aspirations of the national development plan to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality?
How will government ensure the achievement of a “decent standard of living” for all South Africans by 2030 if our foundation phase is off-kilter.
As economist Dawie Roodt has pointed out, the explosive population growth of more than 10-million in a decade spells big problems.
Simply put, he says the country has too many people living off too little tax money and with the economy under pressure and the state being “incompetent and corrupt”, the provision of basic service delivery is being eroded.
We are facing the effects of crumbling infrastructure — burst water pipes or faulty valves leaving homeowners without water for days. Then the load-shedding crippling schools, hospitals and businesses in addition to the impact in our homes.
Yet the ANC will have us believe the results show that while the country may be having difficulties, “life is not the same as it was in 1994”.
Parks Tau, the deputy minister of Cogta, said the ANC’s manifesto had assessed the party’s deliverables, but the census, independently compiled by Stats SA, showed the ANC had performed far better than it had expected.
Speaking at the ANC national executive committee meeting in Boksburg, Tau said: “Why should people not trust the ANC when they are getting potable water in their homes and you want to convince them that they are not. I am urging people to read the census, and based on those numbers they can start ticking the box.”
Spin the census results to drum up support ahead of the national polls. Tick.
The lived experiences of South Africans are an accurate portrayal of the current service delivery.
Instead of glossing over the harsh realities, the government should be honing in on the growth opportunities as we hurtle towards 2030 and the goals of the development plan.
As Everatt points out, government would do well to springboard off already established players in the data ecosystem — the likes of private and academic sectors — to vastly reduce costs and significantly improve accuracy.
Seems like an egg-cellent idea as long as there is political will.
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