Hold tight for a topsy-turvy ride

Someone didn't read the script.

The first week in January is when market participants return from holiday rested, clear-headed and convinced the year ahead will be better, in cheerful buying mood.

However, instead of the usual new year spurt we were off to a wobbly start last week, derailed by the re-emergence of concerns about Greece's standing in the eurozone after the government failed to procure a majority vote in parliament for its presidential candidate and was forced to call a snap election later this month.

Speculation over whether this would lead to a Greek exit from the eurozone and whether the European Central Bank had the means to handle the consequences rattled markets already anxious over steep declines in the oil price and fears that falling consumer price indices globally would obstruct recovery hopes.

The belief that the European Central Bank would introduce bold new moves to invigorate growth in the region blended with good economic news in the US put markets back on track, somewhat eradicating the heavy losses suffered earlier in the week.

The week's pulsations are pointers of what to expect in financial markets in 2015 as investors grapple with geopolitical tensions, retail terrorism, central bankers' attempts to revitalise economies, income inequality, weak commodity prices, slowing emerging market demand and other issues, ensuring investment success this year will be about what to select and what to avoid.

Last year was difficult for commodity investors with prices recording their biggest declines since the global financial crisis in 2008. Hit by mounting supplies and dwindling demand, iron ore and oil prices halved, copper and coal continued to slip and even softs, such as wheat, fell hard.

While investors might be tempted to dip in at what appear to be bargain levels, there is no evidence yet that producers are scaling back shipments nor buyers hurrying to build their inventories.

In the oil market Saudi Arabia continues to wage a crusade against financially stretched US frackers, a struggle that can thump prices even more.

Rather than try to second-guess central bank policies, currency movements, inflationary trends or terms of trade, focus on companies and not countries or regions. Establish what products a company sells, understand where it sells them and analyse what it earns from these sales.

In the US, employment is increasing and wage growth is slowly picking up. With inflation low and gasoline prices tumbling, householders should have more discretionary money to spend, benefiting a range of businesses.

The euro area remains challenging. Still, the acute decline in the euro has made exporters more competitive, and low interest rates and helpful monetary policies should aid luxury goods trade, engineering and healthcare equipment manufacturers, ethical drug producers and the region's top-end motor industry.

Despite varying prospects, emerging economies should outpace growth in developed markets in coming years. Living standards in these economies are accelerating, unlocking new consumers who are building houses, buying and travelling.

The most attractive propositions exist in the way technology is transforming traditional business practices. For example, the rapid rise of internet shopping in the US has closed thousands of chain stores while putting a heavy load on freight and logistic companies.

The local market is more difficult to call. The huge drop in oil should reduce our import bill and dramatically boost consumer wallets. On the other hand, the government might grab some of the gains by hiking petrol taxes to boost sagging revenues. Over and above that, the Eskom power crisis has crippled the country's capacity to grow, commodity prices remain soft and business confidence is still being hampered by our poor skills base, corrupt administration and decaying infrastructure.