Reality check as insolvencies are set to rise

21 November 2015 - 10:43 By TMG Digital

Insolvencies in South Africa will increase by 10% next year and‚ globally‚ the six-year trend of a decline in insolvencies will come to an end as a result of instability in emerging markets. Among factors contributing to insolvencies in South Africa were a contraction in gross domestic product‚ uneasy labour relations‚ electricity disruptions‚ in addition to weak international commodity prices‚ China’s slowdown that affects exports‚ the drought which affects agricultural output and may result in imports‚ and the US monetary policy decision‚ the credit insurance company Euler Hermes said in its economic outlook for 2015-2016.Last year insolvencies worldwide declined by 14%‚ but will drop by 4% this year as a result of the global economic slowdown‚ the company said.Advanced economies will have a 1% decline in insolvencies but there will be a 4% increase in emerging economies that include Brazil‚ China‚ Nigeria‚ Russia‚ South Africa and Turkey.“After a five-year love story with the fastest-growing part of the world‚ time has come for a reality check‚” says Ludovic Subran‚ chief economist at Euler Hermes.Emerging markets have been affected by cheaper commodity prices and a possible Fed rate hike. In addition global gross domestic product has‚ for the past five years‚ slowed to less than 3%.“High corporate debt levels‚ disinflation and disruption form a vicious circle in 3D‚” said Subran. “Companies in the Asia Pacific region are the most affected by these ‘3Ds’‚ resulting in a 11% rise in insolvencies in 2015.”He warned that China would be hard hit. It is predicted insolvencies will increase by 25% this year and 20% next year‚ particularly in the construction‚ metals and mining‚ low-end manufacturing and export-related industries.But advanced economies will have their troubles too - a slow global economic growth‚ “still-high debt levels‚ deflationary pressures‚ disruptions and business demography dynamics”...

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