At first glance, December 14 2020 probably wouldn’t strike you as a significant date in the context of Rugby World Cup 2023.
It did, however, prove a red letter day because the draw for the tournament was held and will have a profound effect on what the 10th edition of the global spectacle will serve up in its latter stages.
The fallout from the draw has cast a shadow as World Rugby has been left with a two-faced tournament. One half of the draw featuring Ireland, South Africa, France, New Zealand and Scotland boasts a galaxy of stars — the other with England, Australia, Wales and, though they are a borderline case, Argentina, a black hole.
World Rugby’s latest rankings feature Ireland, South Africa, France, New Zealand and Scotland as the top five, while Argentina, Fiji, England, Australia and Wales complete the top 10.
It is perhaps no coincidence that teams in pool A and B (Ireland, South Africa, France, New Zealand and Scotland), have not lost to teams in pools C and D (England, Australia, Wales and Argentina) this year.
Two of South Africa, Ireland, France and New Zealand will not go beyond the quarterfinals. The tournament will be poorer for it.
The consequence of such a lopsided draw is one half will suffer heavyweight casualties at the start of the knockout stages while mediocrity might meet freewheeling reward in the other.
Two of South Africa, Ireland, France and New Zealand will not go beyond the quarterfinals.
The tournament will be poorer for it.
Ireland for the second successive World Cup will go into the tournament as top-ranked team. Should they fall short in the quarterfinals again, which is a distinct possibility, there will not be enough Guinness in Dublin.
Equally, the in-form Springboks, who went to the top of the rankings and held on to that position through the pandemic, will want to avoid comparisons with the Proteas.
Imagine the sense of loss and the pall that will fall over the tournament should hosts France fall early or the tremors in New Zealand should the All Blacks prematurely go towards the long white cloud under a dark one?
It is worth noting 12 of the 20 teams qualified by finishing in the top three of their pool in the 2019 tournament. The 12 automatic qualifiers were banded based on World Rugby’s ranking on January 1 2020. It meant something then.
The world rankings, however, will count for nothing once the tournament kicks off.
To have the draw three years before the tournament is laden with peril, but commercial considerations weigh heavy. There are broadcasters, stakeholders, sponsors, strategic partners and the like to appease. Having an abundance of time helps ease pressure on organisational planning and areas such as hospitality and ticketing. Travelling fans will know well in advance where they will be heading.
Those benefits, however, are easily eroded if the integrity of the competition is undermined by the governing body’s rapaciousness.
World Rugby has already indicated they will abandon the practice of conducting the draw so far before the tournament.
It is an example of too little too late. This World Cup was tarnished well before kickoff.
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