Marange possible source of funding for early election

Zanu-PF's threats to hold elections this year with or without a new constitution have drawn mixed reactions from political observers, as questions arise over funding.

Trevor Maisiri, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said: "I don't think there is sufficient evidence on the ground for elections to take place in 2012. It's not just that the finances that are not in place, but it's also the prerequisite reforms.

"Zanu-PF itself does not look like it's ready for elections. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission and other election machinery have not started processes towards an election and normally more than one full year is required to prepare for that."

A $4-million national budget announced by Finance Minister Tendai Biti last year did not allocate any funds to an election. Instead, it set aside funding for a referendum on a new constitution and the cleaning up of the voter's roll this year.

The lack of funds in the Treasury for elections has fuelled speculation that Zanu-PF could use the Marange diamonds to finance the polls, a factor cited by conflict diamonds watchdog Global Witness in its decision to pull out of the Kimberley Certification Process Scheme last year.

Zanu-PF and the country's military forces enjoy a firm foothold in the Marange diamond fields, through the operations of the state-owned Zimbabwe Mineral Development Corporation and a 50-50 venture with Chinese-owned Anjin.

Charmain Gooch, GW's founding director, said at the time of the pullout from the Kimberley process: "Over the past decade, elections in Zimbabwe have been associated with the brutal intimidation of voters. Orchestrating this kind of violence costs a lot of money. As the country approaches another election, there is a high risk of Zanu-PF hardliners employing these tactics once more and using Marange diamonds to foot the bill."

However, political analyst Dumisani Nkomo said it would not be "easy" to manipulate the Marange diamonds to pay for an election, due to the Movement for Democratic Change's push for "transparent" revenue remittance by diamond companies.

Biti has complained of a "parallel government" being run by Zanu-PF, with fiscal activities beneficial to it.

"It's not going to be easy to use revenue streams from Marange diamonds to run an election which is neither sanctioned by the Southern African Development Community nor agreed to by the other principals in the unity government. If that were to happen then the whole scenario of Marange diamonds being used to finance sub-democratic processes is going to hold water. We will likely see an imposition of a ban on the trade of those diamonds again," said Nkomo.

Academic and publisher Ibbo Mandaza said the push for elections in the current environment would reverse all that Zimbabwe had gained in the past three years of the unity government.