At a glance: Super Tuesday states and Republican delegate counts

06 March 2024 - 09:41 By Helen Coster and Makini Brice
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Republican frontrunner Donald Trump dominated the nominating contests taking place coast-to-coast in the US on Super Tuesday. File photo.
Republican frontrunner Donald Trump dominated the nominating contests taking place coast-to-coast in the US on Super Tuesday. File photo.
Image: REUTERS/Scott Morgan/File Photo

Republican front-runner Donald Trump dominated the nominating contests taking place coast-to-coast on Super Tuesday, the biggest day of primaries in the 2024 US presidential election cycle.

Fifteen states held Republican contests, including the two most populous, California and Texas. More than a third of delegates, 865 of 2,42, were up for grabs. At least 1,215 delegates are needed to win the nomination.

About a third of Democratic delegates also were at stake in primaries across the country on Tuesday, but President Joe Biden does not face a serious challenge for his party's nomination.

Here is a look at what is happening on the ground in the Republican fight between Trump and his last remaining rival for the nomination, Nikki Haley, including the latest projections from Edison Research:

VIRGINIA

Race call: Trump wins

Republican delegate count: 48.

Virginia is an open primary state that allows registered voters to participate in either primary, which could have boosted Haley's results given her relative strength with independent voters compared to Trump. Trump had been leading Haley by nearly 49 percentage points, according to a polling average by FiveThirtyEight. In the 2020 general election, Biden won the state by roughly 10 percentage points.

NORTH CAROLINA

Race call: Trump wins

Republican delegate count: 74

North Carolina was watched closely for signs of each candidate's strength in one of the potential battleground states that could decide the general election. Trump won the state in the 2020 election against Biden by just over a single percentage point. The state allows voters who are unaffiliated with a party to participate in any primary they choose, which was seen as potentially lifting Haley's performance.

OKLAHOMA

Race call: Trump wins

Republican delegate count: 43

Oklahoma is one of two states where every county voted for Trump in 2020. The other was West Virginia. A February 4 Morning Consult poll showed Trump beating Haley by 77 percentage points in Oklahoma’s primary contest.

TEXAS

Race call: Trump wins

Republican delegate count: 161

Opinion polls showed Trump to be an overwhelming favourite in Texas’ primary contest, and beating Biden by four percentage points in November. With immigration a major ballot issue, Trump and Biden appeared in duelling visits to the US-Mexico border in Texas on February 29.

TENNESSEE

Race call: Trump wins

Republican delegate count: 58

Opinion polls had shown Trump was likely to get an easy win over Haley in Tennessee, a state he also won in the 2016 and 2020 general elections.

MAINE

Race call: Trump wins

Republican delegate count: 20

Trump led Haley by 58 percentage points in Maine according to a February 19 poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll. Maine, one of the country’s least racially diverse states, has a semi-open primary that allows unenrolled or independent voters to vote in either the Democratic or Republican contest without having to sign up with the party. Biden beat Trump in Maine by roughly nine percentage points in 2020.

ARKANSAS

Race call: Trump wins

Republican delegate count: 40

Trump beat Biden in Arkansas by roughly 27 percentage points in 2020 and is expected to have an even greater lead this year, according to an October 4 Emerson College poll.

ALABAMA

Race call: Trump wins

Republican delegate count: 50

Trump had a huge lead over Haley in polls in Alabama, a state he also easily won in the 2020 general election. The state was thrust to the centre of the US reproductive rights debate after its high court ruled on February 16 that frozen embryos created by in vitro fertilisation treatments should be considered children, leaving Republicans scrambling to contain the public backlash.

MASSACHUSETTS

Race call: Trump wins

Republican delegate count: 40

Trump lost Massachusetts, which has a small Republican Party, by two-to-one margins in the last two general elections. But he had been expected to easily win the primary against Haley. Unaffiliated voters, who comprise 3.1-million of the state’s 4.9 million registered voters, could choose to vote in any primary on Tuesday.

COLORADO

Race call: Trump wins

Republican delegate count: 37

Trump remained on the Colorado primary ballot after the US Supreme Court on Monday blocked states from disqualifying candidates for federal office under a constitutional provision involving insurrection, reversing a state decision that would have excluded him from the ballot.

CALIFORNIA Race call: Trump wins

Republican delegate count: 169

According to Republican Party rules in California, a candidate who wins more than half of primary votes receives all the state’s 169 delegates. If neither candidate wins more than 50% of the votes, delegates will be awarded proportionately based on the statewide vote. In the general election, Biden is expected to easily win the state.

VERMONT

Race call: Haley wins

Republican delegate count: 17

In liberal Vermont, the Republican Party is more moderate than in other states. Its Republican governor Phil Scott endorsed Haley, who benefited from independents voting in the state’s open primary. A February 19 University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll had Trump beating Haley by 30 percentage points. Biden won Vermont by more than 35 percentage points in 2020.

MINNESOTA

Race call: Trump wins

Republican delegate count: 39

Opinion polls show Trump has overwhelming support among Republicans in Minnesota, where Biden is polling slightly ahead of him in the general election. Minnesota three-term Democratic congressman Dean Phillips was on the ballot as a long-shot primary challenger to Biden, but Biden easily won.

UTAH

Republican delegate count: 40

The polls closed at 10pm. This year Utah’s Republican Party opted to hold a caucus and presidential preference poll to determine the party’s nominee instead of a state-funded primary. In a state where Trump beat Biden by roughly 20 percentage points in 2020, a January poll from Dan Jones & Associates showed him beating Haley by 27 percentage points on Super Tuesday.

ALASKA:

Republican delegate count: 29

The polls closed at 8am. Alaska has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964. Trump won by 10 percentage points in the 2020 general election, the smallest Republican margin since 1992. There was no public polling for the Trump-Haley matchup ahead of the primary.

 

FACTBOX-Nine US Senate races to watch in 2024

- U.S. Senator Kyrsten Sinema said on Tuesday she would not seek reelection in Arizona, lifting the threat of a three-way race featuring the Democrat-turned-independent.

Democrats face a tough map in their quest to hold on to or expand their narrow 51-49 majority in the Senate in the Nov. 5 election, since they will need to defend multiple seats in Republican-leaning states.

Below are some races to watch ahead of the 2024 election.

ARIZONA: SINEMA DROPS OUT

Sinema's exit means that Democratic U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego, a progressive, will face off against a Republican candidate.

The Republicans seeking the nomination include Kari Lake, who had been endorsed by Trump during her unsuccessful 2022 run for governor, and Mark Lamb, a county sheriff.

Though Lake is considered the leading candidate and has amassed endorsements from some Senate Republicans, she has been embroiled in disputes with other Republicans, including the former head of the state Republican Party.

Arizona's primaries will be held on July 30.

CALIFORNIA: REPUBLICAN BASEBALL STAR IN THE MIX

Democratic U.S. Representative Adam Schiff, a former House of Representatives Intelligence Committee chairman, will face off with Republican former baseball player Steve Garvey in the race to succeed the late California Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein.

Schiff and Garvey received the most votes in California's primary on Tuesday, in an unusual contest allowing the two top vote-getters, regardless of party, to advance to the general election. Garvey knocked out two U.S. Representatives - Katie Porter and Barbara Lee - to reach the runoff.

Garvey was a popular infielder when he played for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, but the Senate seat is expected to stay in Democrats' hands in a state that reliably votes for the party.

TEXAS: DEMOCRATS EYE OPPORTUNITY

Though Senate Democrats have more seats to defend than Republicans do, they are eyeing some pickup opportunities - namely seats in Texas and Florida.

In Texas, where every statewide elected official is a Republican, Democrats are seeking another chance to topple Ted Cruz. Cruz narrowly won reelection in 2018 and faced an outcry when he traveled to Cancun, Mexico, on vacation as the state grappled with a devastating winter storm.

Cruz, who won his primary on Tuesday, will face Democratic primary winner Colin Allred, a former professional football player and civil-rights attorney and a current congressman who represents a district in the Dallas suburbs.

OHIO: DEMOCRAT DEFENDING SEAT IN TRUMP-SUPPORTING STATE

Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking to defend his seat in a state that voted for Trump in the 2020 election.

The race to win the Republican nomination so far includes Ohio's Secretary of State Frank LaRose; Matt Dolan, a state senator; and Bernie Moreno, a businessman. Moreno has received Trump's endorsement in the race.

Ohio's primaries will be held on March 19.

PENNSYLVANIA: RETURN OF MCCORMICK

Republicans are eyeing the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate seat as a possible opportunity for them in the perennially competitive state. Democrat Bob Casey is running for reelection, where Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund executive, is vying for the seat.

McCormick had previously run for Senate in 2022, but lost the Republican primary to television personality Mehmet Oz, who had been endorsed by Trump. Oz went on to lose his race against Democrat John Fetterman.

Pennsylvania's primaries will be held on April 23.

MARYLAND: REPUBLICAN CHALLENGER

Larry Hogan, the Republican former governor of Maryland, announced on Feb. 9 that he would run for an open Senate seat. Though Maryland has not elected a Republican senator since 1970, Hogan was a popular governor in the state and polling has suggested the race will be competitive.

David Trone, a congressman and wine magnate, and Angela Alsobrooks, a county executive, are seeking the Democratic nomination for the seat.

Maryland's primaries will be held on May 14.

MONTANA: VULNERABLE DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT

Democratic Senator Jon Tester is defending his seat in a state that backed Trump during the 2020 election.

Tim Sheehy, a military veteran who founded an aerial firefighting company, is running as a Republican and has drawn the support of other party members in the Senate.

Representative Matt Rosendale, who lost to Tester in 2018, said on Feb. 9 that he would also seek the Republican nomination, potentially setting up a divisive primary fight. But Trump endorsed Sheehy that day and Rosendale dropped out of the race less than a week later.

Montana's primaries will be held on June 4.

NEW JERSEY: LOOKING TO REPLACE MENENDEZ

Democratic Senator Bob Menendez so far has not said whether he will seek reelection after being indicted by federal prosecutors on bribery charges. Menendez was hit with a fresh obstruction of justice charge on Tuesday.

Several Democrats are eyeing the seat, including Tammy Murphy, the wife of Governor Phil Murphy, and Representative Andy Kim.

New Jersey's primaries will be held on June 4.

UTAH: CROWDED REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Utah is an open seat, with Republican Senator Mitt Romney, a prominent Trump critic and onetime party standard-bearer, having announced he would not seek re-election. Unlikely to swing to Democratic hands, the state is expected to feature a crowded Republican primary.

The candidates seeking the seat include the former speaker of the state's House of Representatives, Brad Wilson; U.S. Representative John Curtis; and Brent Orrin Hatch, the son of the senator who held the seat for 42 years before Romney.

Utah's primaries will be held on June 25.

Reuters


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