If former ANC treasurer-general Mathews Phosa is to be believed, there are rumblings of yet another breakaway formation from the party. In a speech last week, Phosa said: “Long-time loyalists have irrevocably given up hope that the party which liberated SA will reach deep within and renew itself.”
One cannot help but be a tad mischievous and ask: who are these “long-time loyalists” who have finally found their backbone? Are they, like Phosa himself, those who in 2007 enthusiastically elected a man facing corruption charges to lead them, who supported him as he dismantled law enforcement agencies and as he handed the state to the Guptas? My my my, things must be really bad in the state of SA and in the ANC for them to have been awakened from their 15-year slumber to suddenly realise that, as one would put it in Afrikaans, “ons is in die k*k” (we are in the brown stuff).
South Africans have been crying for years, and the worthies of the ANC have been protecting their corrupt leaders in all that time. Now these ANC “loyalists” preach to us about ethical governance. According to Phosa, these loyalists are talking of “a new party with its roots in liberation politics, but its eyes on clean governance, people-sensitive delivery and abhorrence of the current corrupt practices of those in power”.
I am tempted to laugh. In 2008, these “long-time loyalists” had a chance to join Mbhazima Shilowa and Terror Lekota in the ANC breakaway party, Congress of the People. They could even have gone off and helped out the Pan Africanist Congress of Azania, the DA, or some other opposition formation. They held on to Zuma’s corrupt skirts instead. They actively demonised anyone who dared remind them clean governance was something the ANC’s founding fathers would have considered sacrosanct.
It will be interesting to see whether such a formation becomes a true opposition party or whether, like the African Transformation Movement (ATM), it becomes a mere proxy for a faction of the ANC.
In 2013 these “long-time loyalists” could have peeled off with Julius Malema and his EFF. They chose to sit tight by Zuma and support him as he defeated one motion of no confidence after another.
In August 2017 parliament held a motion of no-confidence against Zuma by secret ballot, giving these “loyalists” a chance to finally evict from office the man Malema branded “the most corrupt individual in this country”. Even with no threat to them, these quislings still voted for Zuma and defeated the motion with 198 votes to 177.
Minister of arts and culture Nathi Mthethwa crowed at the opposition: “The ANC will not be lectured by the upstarts, the start-ups and some Mickey Mouse organisations like yourselves.”
That’s the hypocrisy of these “long-time loyalists” who now want to peel off from their embattled party. Watch them closely over the next few months. My bet is they do not really want to leave. They are negotiating seats for themselves at the top table. They want any ascendant faction in the ANC to co-opt them back into power and ensure them seats on the NEC at the December elective conference.
Their hypocrisy aside, I fervently wish and hope that the rumblings of a new breakaway party are true and that these “loyalists” launch a new formation. It will be interesting to see whether such a formation becomes a true opposition party or whether, like the African Transformation Movement (ATM), it becomes a mere proxy for a faction of the ANC.
The consequences of a breakaway will be significant. It would take us closer to a post-ANC SA. If the breakaway is well organised and is made up of serious anti-graft players, it would weaken the ANC led by Cyril Ramaphosa significantly. He would personally take a blow within his party and, if he survives his Phala Phala troubles, when he goes to the polls in 2024. If the breakaway is by the radical economic transformation faction, it would still weaken the ANC significantly in 2024. The party’s grip on power in KZN, for example, would be significantly threatened, making room for opposition players to emerge winners.
However, I would not expect the RET faction to walk away from the ANC. They want to steal the organisation and use it to weaken law enforcement while they milk the people of SA dry. Winning the ANC but losing in 2024 would be a disaster for this faction. Can you imagine just how law enforcement agencies would be empowered under a new coalition government?
For ordinary South Africans watching as their country collapses under the ANC, the idea of yet another breakaway from the party should be welcome news. It means the days of unresponsive, corrupt, government may be over as a fractured ANC loses to the opposition in 2024. An ANC splinter or split today would guarantee the party’s departure from the Union Buildings.
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