MAKHUDU SEFARA | This could be Ramaphosa’s undoing, but presidents survive these things

With the ANC elective conference just around the corner, it may look like time is up for President Cyril Ramaphosa, but he could still escape impeachment by the skin of his teeth.

While survival is possible for Ramaphosa, it won’t succeed without dividing the already fractured party or, worse, aggravating its electoral losses because of the putrid stench that is Phala Phala farmgate.

At a macro level, there seems to be a big chess game, whose detail is choreographed with the sort of precision normally reserved for German carmakers, calculated to get Ramaphosa to lead the party beyond December. But he’s skating on thin ice. Will he sink before December 16, when the ANC elective conference gets under way, or will he live to tell a scintillating story of how he kept his challengers chasing shadow for weeks?

It seemed a few days ago that the only thing standing between Ramaphosa and his re-election was the much-anticipated report of the three-member expert panel appointed by parliament — more than his ANC challengers. This week, Ramaphosa was thrown a new lease on life — an extension to the deadline by which former chief justice Sandile Ngcobo and his team must deliver a report to parliament to November 30 (from November 17).

Theoretically, this was a day before parliamentarians were to drop their pens and head for the holidays. The timing seemed curious. Conspiracy theorists believed it was a plan hatched to get Ramaphosa off the hook until he has firmly secured his leadership of the ANC at the conference.

But, sensing the possible manipulation of deadlines to favour Ramaphosa, various opposition parties balked at the idea, suggesting ahead of a programming committee meeting that they would rather forfeit their leave days to deal with the saga. “The matter cannot be delayed or deferred to next year. It’s urgent,” protested DA chief whip Siviwe Gwarube, with other major opposition parties agreeing. This forced parliament to set December 6 as the date to process the report.

It is clear that much hope is being pinned on the panel making adverse findings against Ramaphosa. It is also clear that opposition parties, aware of fissures within the ANC, want to help sharpen the contradictions, as it were. They know too that they have support from those within the ANC who are opposed to Ramaphosa. Essentially, a large group of politicians is pinning its hopes on what the former chief justice is going to say, and his timing of the report has political significance for factional battles within the party.

But what if Ngcobo asks for a second postponement? Just think of the chest pains, as Julius Malema would put it, that such a postponement would have on the politics of our country. Worse, imagine the postponement is for up to December 21 — a day after the conference. If you think about how many times that other chief justice responsible for the state capture commission requested postponements, why is this impossible, especially if Ramaphosa and his handlers become desperate?

Truth is, the fact that there are grounds for impeachment does not mean the impeachment process will simply succeed.

But assuming the panel does deliver a report ahead of the ANC elective conference, what are the possible options? First, the panel could simply say there is a basis to impeach. Second, it might say there isn’t. Third, it might not be quite what opposition parties and Ramaphosa’s ANC opponents are hoping for. It’s possible. In its request for a postponement, the panel effectively said the issues dealt with are complex. So it’s possible for the panel to say it’s unable to make a determination on the basis of the paucity of information at its disposal. That a claim is made does not mean it’s substantiated.

Put differently, it might say since it didn’t have investigative capability or that it was not required to investigate but simply to make an assessment on the basis of readily available information, which may also be insufficient, this information did not go far enough to help it make a legally sound determination. More so because the criminal part of the investigation is yet to move two inches. And we expect nothing more from the police, SA Reserve Bank, public protector and others until after December.

In addition, here’s the conundrum for those relying on Ngcobo to floor Ramaphosa: when the expert panel delivers a report, it remains an opinion of experts, but an opinion nonetheless. Even if Ngcobo says there are grounds to impeach, impeachment proceedings can only start next year — and this still favours Ramaphosa. The existence of grounds for impeachment does not mean proven grounds for impeachment. Given this scenario, what if Ramaphosa digs his heels in, just as he did when the rest of us asked him to explain what happened at his farm, and refuses to step aside, as some would expect him to?

Truth is, the fact that there are grounds for impeachment does not mean the process will succeed. The impeachment process against a rogue president like Donald Trump got under way but failed — twice. Richard Nixon, sensing impeachment, stepped down as a result of the Watergate scandal in 1974. After a year of impeachment proceedings against president James Buchanan, he, like Trump, survived.

The point is that presidents survive these things. It’s a case of numbers. Further, the very pronouncement by Ngcobo and his team that there are grounds for impeachment could trigger a process of litigation. Ramaphosa is still free to challenge the basis of the conclusions which might have a material impact on his political life. This is what former president Jacob Zuma has done for more than 20 years — litigating his way out of accountability.

But the big question for many is what could be achieved between when the nation receives the much-awaited expert panel report on November 30, if indeed it arrives, and December 16, when the ANC faithful will assemble at Nasrec to elect the leaders to help save the party from a potentially embarrassing defeat in 2024?

This period is a silver lining for those bent on removing Ramaphosa, but they must know that this Ankole guy has the tendencies of phunyuka bamphethe (one who escapes from the clutches of those pursuing him). If the expert panel report delivery dates are manipulated to favour Ramaphosa, those opposing him might collapse the election conference, especially if they see that his supporters will, all things considered, out-vote them.

In the end, though, the possibility of Ramaphosa outmanoeuvring everyone doesn’t make him the leader of SA. He too knows it. The ANC know it. And the voters are becoming more aware. The ANC will either auto-correct or the voters will eventually help it.