The journey to qualify for the 2024 Paris Olympics, which begins in earnest this year, underlines the lack of depth in South Africa's talent pool.
Make no mistake, there is flair and ability, from veterans such as Tokyo Games champion Tatjana Schoenmaker and 30-year-old warriors Wayde van Niekerk and Chad le Clos, to more freshly established stars such as middle-distance runner Prudence Sekgodiso and swimmers Lara van Niekerk, Matthew Sates and Pieter Coetzé.
Swimming and athletics have been the country’s two biggest providers of medals since readmission, respectively contributing 16 and 14 of the 38 gongs won by Team South Africa at the eight Olympics since Barcelona 1992.
Athletics:
Men: Akani Simbine (100m), Luxolo Adams (200m), Wayde van Niekerk (400m), Zakhiti Nene (400m), Tshepo Tshite (800m).
Women: Carina Horn (100m), Prudence Sekgodiso (800m), Zeney van der Walt (400m hurdles), Irvette van Zyl (marathon).
Swimming:
Men: Matthew Sates (200m freestyle, 200m individual medley, 400m IM), Pieter Coetzé (100m & 200m backstroke), Chad Le Clos (100m & 200m butterfly).
Women: Tatjana Schoenmaker (100m & 200m breaststroke), Lara van Niekerk (100m breaststroke), Kaylene Corbett (200m breaststroke).
— SA competitors who produced Olympic qualifying standards in 2022
And the class of 2024 has the potential to deliver one of the better medals hauls for the country; six-plus is on the cards.
But when one looks beneath the gloss it is clear there is a low number of top-flight competitors in athletics and swimming, especially women.
Combined, only 15 swimmers and athletes delivered performances during 2022 that, if reproduced during the Olympic qualifying windows that mostly open up this year, would guarantee automatic entry to the showpiece in France.
Those 15 performed in 17 events, which translates to less than 25% of the 70 individual medal events on show in Paris. Track and field offers 42 events (21 for men and women) and swimming 28 (14 for men and women).
Of the remaining 52 individual events, 17 will require South African records to achieve automatic qualification. That includes two events where South Africa has won Olympic silverware — the women’s 10,000m (Elana Meyer claimed silver in 1992) and the women’s 100m backstroke (Marianne Kriel took bronze in 1996).
Of the other 35 events, a handful were once dominated by South Africa internationally, notably the men’s 100m freestyle, men’s 400m hurdles and men’s long jump. Not one of them boasts an automatic qualifier.
At least South Africa has re-emerged as a women’s breaststroke powerhouse after nearly two decades, thanks to Schoenmaker, sprinter Van Niekerk and Kaylene Corbett, a 200m specialist looking to share the Games podium with Schoenmaker in Paris.
Yet, an alarming aspect is that 14 of the 17 South African records required to qualify are in women’s events — nine in track and field and five in swimming.
At Tokyo 2020 Schoenmaker and surfer Bianca Buitendag won South Africa's three medals, but their display of women’s power shouldn’t distract observers from the gaping gender deficits in South African sport.
The South African athletics and swimming teams going to Paris will surely be much larger than the nine athletes and six swimmers, because both codes offer tiers of entry other than automatic qualifying standards.
Next in place for athletics is its world ranking system that was in place for Tokyo 2020 and the world championships in Eugene last year.
Swimming has renamed what it called A and B qualifying times to Olympic qualifying times and consideration times.
Consideration times, as in world rankings in athletics, will be used to fill empty lanes.
Athletics has been allocated 1,810 spots in Paris, of which only half are expected to be filled by automatic qualifiers.
Swimming has 852 berths, though the percentage of automatic qualifiers is likely to be far higher than in athletics.
Each nation is allowed to enter a maximum of three competitors per track and field event and two per swimming race.
Swimming’s qualifying window runs from March 1 2023 to June 23 2024, and athletics’ is open from July 1 2023 to June 30 2024, with the exception of relays, race walks and combined events (their windows opened December 31 2022) and marathon (November 1 2022 to April 30 2024).
South Africa's squad numbers could also be swollen by relay teams.
There is also the likelihood that some athletes and swimmers will emerge to qualify automatically in Paris.
In athletics they are the men's 10,000m and decathlon and the women's 10,000m, 100m hurdles, 3,000m steeple chase, pole vault, triple jump, shot put, hammer throw, heptathlon and 20km race walk.
In swimming they are the men's 800m freestyle and the women's 100m freestyle, 400m freestyle, 100m backstroke, 200m butterfly and 200m individual medley.
— SA records will be required in 17 events to qualify for Paris 2024
Marioné Fourie, who enjoyed a solid breakout season in 2022 with seven sub-13-second runs in the 100m hurdles, will need to break the 12.81 national mark if she is to reach the 12.77 qualifying standard.
Kyle Blignaut, sixth in the shot put at the Tokyo Games, needs to lift his 21.21m best to 21.50 to guarantee his place.
And Adriaan Wildschutt, whose 27min 38.54sec best is within 10 seconds of Hendrick Ramaala’s South African mark, will still have to find another nearly 28 seconds on top of that to reach the 27:00.00 automatic qualifying mark, which is even faster than the 27:01.17 Olympic record. The winning time in Tokyo was 27:43.22.
The pace of distance races on the track can vary tremendously, depending on tactics.
But elsewhere, aspiring medallists need to be well inside the qualifying standards to have medal aspirations.
And right now South Africa's 24.28% score for the 70 athletics and swimming events in Paris should be a concern.
Drilling down deeper, men’s swimming scores 50%, men’s and women’s athletics are at 19% each and women’s swimmers are on 14%.
Let’s see how much it changes in the next 18 months.
SA competitors who produced Olympic qualifying standards in 2022:
Athletics:
Men: Akani Simbine (100m), Luxolo Adams (200m), Wayde van Niekerk (400m), Zakhiti Nene (400m), Tshepo Tshite (800m).
Women: Carina Horn (100m), Prudence Sekgodiso (800m), Zeney van der Walt (400m hurdles), Irvette van Zyl (marathon).
Swimming:
Men: Matthew Sates (200m freestyle, 200m individual medley, 400m IM), Pieter Coetzé (100m & 200m backstroke), Chad le Clos (100m & 200m butterfly).
Women: Tatjana Schoenmaker (100m & 200m breaststroke), Lara van Niekerk (100m breaststroke), Kaylene Corbett (200m breaststroke).
SA records will be required in 17 events to qualify for Paris 2024.
In athletics they are the men's 10,000m and decathlon and the women's 10,000m, 100m hurdles, 3,000m steeple chase, pole vault, triple jump, shot put, hammer throw, heptathlon and 20km race walk.
In swimming they are the men's 800m freestyle, women's 100m freestyle, 400m freestyle, 100m backstroke, 200m butterfly and 200m individual medley.
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